Friday, 6 November 2009

The Vote

It appears very likely that the universal health care vote will occur tomorrow. The necessity for the rush? I believe the air is seeping out of general support from the public...the media....and house members.

I don't give this good odds of passing. If it passes..it's less than five votes on the win....and I'm more likely to believe in a loss by twenty votes or more.

The curious thing that McCain points out today...is that there is nothing in real law or the Constitution that dictates you buy a commercial service in America. Some folks want to point out that car insurance is required....but I would readily come back with the concept that you don't have to drive. Mennonite buggy's in Tennessee don't require buggy insurance. McCain hints heavily that the Supreme Court will have the final say, and likely wipe out any mandatory mandate. That pretty much destroys any real concrete effectiveness in this law.....it fails quickly.

In the beginning, there were 35 million people with issues. It would have been simple to cook up five or six small but significant moves....then write one such move into a simplistic 80-page document. A month of discussion....no big costly actions.....and it would have passed in the summer of 2009. Later, a second such move......100 pages long.....and a simple action passes.

It would have taken two years but small steps would have made this practical and supportive throughout the US. In the current form? 1900 pages? A personal invitation to Fox News to fight the massive bill? What idiot would dream up a scenario like this?

A loss here? Well....it deflates this entire idea for the remaining years of the Obama administration....whether three or seven. It takes the administration down three or four steps and weakens their agenda for the next twelve months.

A win here? Well....it likely takes out fifty Democratic seats in November's election next year and at least four Democratic senator seats.

You can understand the fear amongst two or three dozen Democratic representatives right now.....they know they are finished if they vote for this bill. Another two dozen are scratching their heads and wondering the extent of the vote....whether it might tilt against them. If you give the President, Pelosi and Reid your vote....what happens after November of 2010? Will they protect you? Will they find something to help you next summer? Even if the President comes to your district for three or four visits.....will it make any difference? Frankly, too many questions here for most guys to entertain.

So I'm betting it fails.....my humble opinion.

Observations over Fort Hood

So twenty-four hours have passed, and I will offer this four observations.

First, this nutcase involved...is just that...a nutcase. He hid behind the Muslim religion and the US military image for a number of years. Whatever problems he really had....had been there for probably two decades. So I don't buy this emotional breakdown story. He's been nuts for years and simply got people to look the other way to avoid saying something about his problem.

Second, at 5PM as the cable news guys went to the President...expecting just a short comment from him and it would have been a 5-star moment to give a moment of silence for the GI's killed....the President instead launched into a 3-minute loose speech at the Indian tribal conference he was attending....and then finally got to the major topic which most cable news networks came to capture. Frankly, it was a 1-star delivery (I watched the clip).

My impression is that his handling team really didn't carry out their job and had no grasp of the moment. Even if he had common sense....I doubt if he had any real speech drafted and was totally out of any bold or positive statement. He may be a great speech-delivery vehicle.....but without a speech....he's as good as some mayor from Arkansas.

Third, what happens to the guy? Well...he'll get patched up....and face charges. My guess is that he will be proclaimed guilty by the end of 2010....and executed by the military by the summer of 2011. You won't find any military court sympathy for the guy. I would even imagine that they have to move the case to some other state to find fairness.

Fourth and final.....some folks will discuss the idea of examining all Islamic guys in the military. Frankly, there is a growing population but I doubt that it really matters. This is a volunteer force. If you got issues with something...you let your contract expire and leave the service.