It's just my theory but here's my BP predicted outcome. Before October...BP International splits it's American piece off. US BP will continue to exist and be stuck with the oil mess to clean up and probably a cash slush fund of $40 billion....with a staff of couple thousand folks and barely any profit since all of the Gulf projects are in question now.
The remaining big chunk of BP? It'll be totally renamed....and repackaged. It'll survive on.
The US BP group? Well...they will try to clean up the mess and pay off folks in Louisiana for two years but shortly after the 2012 election...they will be broke and declaring bankruptcy.
To make this happen cleanly...the BP national folks will help both political parties and ensure no one asks stupid questions over the next two years.
US BP dies a quiet death...the Gulf will still have oil issues....and you can't blame much of anyone.
Just my scenario.