Ten years ago.....I would never have envisioned any state or local government moving toward legal pot sales.....but today? It's a vast new world.
So the article in question goes over this study conducted by the Rand Corporation. These are the wiz kids and brilliant analytical folks....who sit and think about alot of things. Generally, you can respect anything they suggest.
So they suggest here....that if you were to legalize marijuana (at least within California only)....then you could see a price drop of 80 percent. This is like walking into McDonalds and suddenly your typical meal of $7 is now $1. It's like ordering a beer at your favorite bar and it's 15 cents. It's like going to the Chevy dealer and suddenly your $20k car is $4k.
Imagine such a world.
Naturally.....the guy who support marijuana want to put a California proposition up for voters....to make pot legal for anyone over 21 (at least in small amounts). Why they picked 21....is anyone's guess.
What is also being discussed quietly amongst the same supporters....is the tax effort on legalized sales. Most pot smokers would prefer no tax and I'm pretty sure this discussion is simply to make folks think there might be tax revenue gains from such a change. As Pat pointed out as he wrote this article.....there's another bill out there (may or may not pass) that puts a $50 tax on an ounce of pot. My guess is that it'll never pass (if it'd been $5, maybe it would have been legitimate to think about).
So where are we going? Well....sit back and imagine....you can guess the direction accurately. California will go 100 percent pot-free within five years and attempt to tax the product (that part will be a failure).
I don't see this as a wave. Few states will follow this....it'll be like the situation that Amsterdam has today in Europe.....with one liberal state and everyone else acting 'normal'.
So you can imagine these road-tours by a bunch of folks in Austin or Nashville or St. Louis.....all piling into a van and going out to California for ten days of R&R and heavy-duty pot usage. Maybe that'll be what saves California's revenue situation in the end.....with tens of thousands of folks crossing the border to smoke weed out in the desert for seven days straight, and then drive back to their state line.
My final observation or question? If you had one state where the price of pot drops by eighty percent....then what happens in the other 49 states? This brings up a major business question of how one effect topples over onto another effect. Frankly, there are no business models to suggest the outcome of an event like this.