Monday, 2 May 2011

Osama

I will make a couple of observations over the timely death of Osama.

First, from various reports....this was a 6-year-plus period in which we simply had this hint about this compound and that it might be housing a VIP.  We are talking about a small unimportant tip that simply kept getting a bit more interest...until finally, there was enough evidence to send in a SEAL team.  You have to have alot of patience to follow a trail like this for six years.

Second, it's amazing for me to turn my TV on at 3AM and see that folks are up in New York City....celebrating the timely death of Osama, and they just might go on until the sun rises.  If you had to pick one area of the US where this was the best news of the day....it'd be the big apple.

Third, what now?   He will be buried quickly....likely at sea.  Name recognition is now gone.  You get stuck with Mullah Omar who is totally unbalanced and no one has heard from the guy for almost eight years, and then a couple of number two guys who aren't really known beyond Pakistan or Saudi Arabia.  Recruitment might perk up for a month in honor of the killing, but I suspect the long-term recruitment numbers are going to dissolve.

Fourth, who takes charge now?  It's kinda like a mafia hit.  A couple of guys meet....they argue....someone gets hostile and shoots a primary candidate, and then everyone moves onto round two.  I don't see some absolute ruler of the movement for weeks or months.

Fifth and final, sadly....the war continues on.  Within a month....some idiot within Islamic threat will carry out some attack on a subway in London, Paris or Frankfurt.  They will have to achieve some act....simply to show they are still functional.  We may have killed our chief target.....but honestly.....nothing really stops from this event.  And that's the sad part about this story.  You'd all like an end.

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