Sunday, 23 January 2011

The Clock is Ticking Away

Sadly, we are at roughly twelve months away from the 2012 primary season.  I realize that most of us are terribly tired from the 2010 political elections and ready for a rest, but the best we can hope for is six months of 2011 being semi-quiet.

By July of this year.....things will start heating up.  For the Republicans....timing, charm, and cash are the essential ingredients.  The schedule and location really spell out a difficult trail for the Republican party.  Listed below is the first ten-odd primaries and my predicted winner.

Monday, January 16, 2012: Iowa caucuses.  Winner?  Huck.

Tuesday, January 24: New Hampshire. Winner?  Mitt Romney.

Saturday, January 28: Nevada caucuses.  Winner? Palin.  South Carolina.  Winner? Huck.

Tuesday, January 31: Florida.  Winner?  Newt.

If you notice by this point, Huck is the only one leading....which will worry some of the guys who thought they had a chance.  But the Super-Tuesday thrill is coming next.

Tuesday, February 7 (Super Tuesday): Alabama.  Winner? Newt.
Arkansas.  Winner?  Huck.
California.  Winner?  Romney.
Connecticut.  Winner?  Newt.
Delaware, Winner?  Romney.
Georgia.  Winner?  Newt.
Illinois.  Winner? Mitch Daniels.
Missouri.  Winner?  Palin.
New Jersey.  Winner? Mitch Daniels.
New York.  Winner?  Mitch Daniels.
Oklahoma.  Winner?  Huck.
Tennessee.  Winner?  Newt.
Utah.  Winner?  Palin.

If these seem all over the board.....it's because there is no clear front-player.  Even Super-Tuesday settles little to nothing.  I don't think anyone can predict more than the top five candidates in the 2012 primary season.  The odds of any of them beating the President currently?  Less than twenty percent chance, in my humble opinion.

So if you were hoping for twelve months of just peace and quiet before the start-up of more politics.....I'm sorry, but you just won't get it.