Wednesday, 23 March 2011

My Honest Opinion on Libya

This is what I privately think.  About six weeks ago as folks sat and watched events unfold in Egypt....a couple of White House power-players sat and discussed what happens next.  There are two topics which probably took place: Libya and Saudi Arabia/Bahrain.

The boys probably sat there a while....without any CIA influence or military analysts.....watching mostly CNN and MSNBC.  The think-tank folks came up and suggested various things.  Our power-players wrote some notes and waited.

Days passed.  Then, all heck broke loose in Libya and to a lesser degree....Saudi Arabia/Bahrain.  Nobody cares much for Tunisia or Egypt.....because there's no oil.  But Libya and Saudi Arabia/Bahrain are different.

So the White House quietly told the Pentagon to watch Libya carefully.  At some point, there's this topic brought up on CNN and MSNBC over a no-fly zone.  The Pentagon guys likely got all nuts over this because you really can't order one from Menu A and two from Menu B.  There is a certain order to military action.  But the guys over at the White House just didn't grasp that part.

So the French started to plan up this help-Libya operation.  Naturally, the Italians and British quickly jumped in as well.  The US?  Well....I suspect the Pentagon really didn't want any part of this mess.  So the boys looked at the calendar and figured to time this start-up with President Obama out of the US.  He couldn't be readily connected to this.  Don't ask me the childish notion of how you think that....but people actually believe it.

Toss in a quick UN resolution, and we got ourselves a 1-star war.  It's against an enemy that Italy probably could fight alone.....if they were really into this, but they aren't.  Egypt could invade Libya and win an all-out war in ten days....if they really felt like it but they didn't.

So here we are.  No generals want to discuss this in public because they don't have the script and have no idea what step will occur next.  The Russians are mocking the Americans.  Some idiot pulled out the President's comments from three years ago and he said no President could declare a war without congress.  Yes, he looks fairly naive but then that's acceptable.

What next?  The Saudis are kinda sitting there and hoping that the riots decrease rapidly.  They really don't need their government to fall.  If it did....and you folks happen to own SUV vehicles.....then you'd best prepare for $5 gas within four weeks.....and $7 gas within six months.  Course, that would really hurt any election in 2012....if you think about it.  So you can't afford collapse in Saudi Arabia/Bahrain.....now, can you?

Just a humble opinion.

What You May Have Forgotton

Jimmy Carter ran against Gerald Ford in 1976 after the Watergate Hearings.  For Ford, it had been a tough bitter fight with Ronald Reagan and it was to be very close.

Carter won the national vote by barely 700,000 votes.  If you look at a map....almost every state west of the Mississippi voted for Gerald Ford.  Carter picked up the south....with the key states of Texas and New York.....thus winning election....barely.

It was not a sure thing, and the key was people in the heartland upset over Republicans and Watergate.

Four years pass.  Ronald Reagan runs against President Carter.  Out of leftfield comes John Anderson who is what you'd term as a original Tea Party kind of candidate.  Anderson takes five million votes in the national election....most of which are independent voters and it's supposed to be just an opportunity for hostile voters to say something to Carter without helping Reagan.

The problem here.....is that Reagan carries a eight-million vote surplus across the US.  There are only six states that carry a Carter plus-up.

The curious thing that I noted being around this era...was that everyone had an opinion on Jimmy Carter.  It tended to be mostly negative.  Around five million voters from 1976 to 1980.....lost their attitude on Carter, and shifted to either Regan or Anderson.

2012?  The odds of President Obama maintaining his 69 million votes?  I'm having doubts that he carry those type numbers.  He could still win if the Republicans put up a candidate with no real support.  But the 2012 Democratic vote will likely push itself to just make the 60 million level.....if you ask me.  And a third-party guy to detract from the Republicans?  It'll be difficult to imagine such a scenario in 2012.

If you had approached Jimmy Carter in 1979 and suggested a huge loss coming.....he wouldn't have believed it.  And I doubt that he would have done anything different.

Just a Trend

The Census is a significant thing for American cities.  It could plus your representation within the state, give you a better position for state or federal funding, and establish your status as a national city.  It could also be a negative bit of news, and really bring you down a notch.  That's what occurred in Detroit yesterday.

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out......Detroit fell drastically.  Their population is now at 713,777.....that was the same level they had in the 1910 Census.....which means a one hundred year fall.  Naturally, the mayor would like a recount, but I doubt that the Census folks will agree to that.

What I found amusing about this trend....is that across the US.....Latinos were picking up on population areas left and right.  For Detroit....the Latinos barely added 1,500 folks.  So that kinda kicks the city one more time....in the fact....that it doesn't even attract a Hispanic to come up and settle.

The cherry on this cake?  There were over 180k blacks who said adios and just plain left.  There's probably a good story here....where some guy talks things over with his wife, packs up a U-Haul, and moves to New Jersey.  Some mother is furious over crime and hauls herself and the two kids down to Memphis.  Some widower guy finally decides enough, and leaves for Houston with just some suitcases and a 1991 Ford F-150.  You could probably make an entire movie over the ex-Detroit crowd and what they did as they left town.

There is one question left.  What happens in 2020?  Will the Census show even fewer folks?  Will the town shrink down to 650,000 by that point?  Will it even go past that to 590,000?  It would be a curious thing.  I doubt that they've hit the bottom yet.