Saturday, 23 April 2011

Stuff You Might Want to Know

In the past month....with all the fighting around the House, the Senate and the President....it's become apparent that some things are not working like you'd expect them to work.

So, looking ahead to 2012 and the Presidential election, you might want to start thinking about how things might get screwed up in the next election....namely, that Trump takes two or three states, and causes a no-win situation in the Electoral College.

So what happens?  You might want to know.

The Twelfth Amendment says that after the Electoral College certifies (in mid-December) no winner, than the House of Representatives must meet up immediately to vote for President.

The gang there gets the top three candidates....let's say President Obama, the "Donald" and "Huck".  In this case, each state delegation votes as a group with one single state vote (no, the District of Columbia doesn't have one).  The key here....you have to come up with 26 state votes.

So you can imagine the fear, hostility and impending doom of this day.  You have a state with five Representatives, and three are Democrat....even if the majority of the state voted for "Huck"....the vote likely goes to the President.  You have a state with six Democrats and six Republicans Representatives?  They can't make a decision?  Then they come to "no-vote".  You have a state with twenty-two Representatives...thirteen of which are Republican....and the state voted mostly for President Obama, then the likely state vote from this meeting could be a vote for Donald Trump.

The curious thing about this meeting?  At least two-thirds of all the states must be present for this vote to count.  One state like Rhode Island....has as much power as Texas.  You can start to feel a great deal of hostility brewing via the press and mass media as they come to grasp how this whole thing could turn into a giant circus just a week or two before Christmas.

So what happens if the twenty-six number isn't reached?  It just keeps going.  Day by day....week by week.   In the middle of January as the new Representatives arrive to take the positions of the ones who lost....if we get this far....you could find a whole new prospective on how the mess should be settled.

While all of this is going on....the meeting of the Senate is underway....picking the VP.  They only get the top two vote-getters from the election, so it's a bit easier here, Plus you have one vote per senator, so there are 100 votes to mess with.  They need a simple majority to reach this point....51 votes.  The odds of these guys taking more than one day is virtually zero.  You can imagine five hours of debate....a recess of three hours, and they return around mid-evening to vote.  I would speculate one simple vote would take eight minutes, and their mess would be done.

After watching the economic debate a few weeks ago....I'd say that we have all the right ingredients to bring about a non-winner in the Electoral College.

Huck has to take all of the south (except Florida), all the mid-west states, along with Arizona, Nevada and Idaho.  If Trump takes New York state, New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Michigan....which I believe he could achieve wins in those four states....then there is no clear winner in the Electoral College.

Perhaps an scenario but we all sat and watched a bunch of folks argue for months over the budget and turn it into a five-star mess.  We've barely settled that affair and must now work toward the 2012 budget.  We've got issues.