Monday, 25 July 2011

Simply Observations

Amy Winehouse.  There's not much to say.  If I had been a betting person....I would have put down $10k three years ago and felt sure she was going to die of a drug overdose in the near-future.  The sad thing is that she had a voice at the beginning....a potentially great career.....and just screwed everything up.  End of the story.

The Norway shooter?  You can now put him in the same category as Timothy McVeigh, Charley Manson, and the Unabomber.  They all had agendas and a manifesto.  Each one had to kill innocent people....to make their point.  The Norway guy sat down and wrote 1,500 pages worth of reasons why the world is screwed up, and why he ought to fix things via a violent means.  The strange thing?  The Norway shooter, McVeigh, Manson, and the Unabomber were all captured alive.  McVeigh is dead....but only because it's Oklahoma justice handling the business.  How to counter these nuts?  There is virtually no way that you can predict or select those who fit the profile.  There could be a hundred Unabomber idiots sitting in New Jersey alone.

Finally, what happens to this week with the debt deal?  Rumor has it that the Democrats are working their own plan to fix things.  Frankly, the clock is ticking on a number of fronts.  The Moody folks are studying the moment to downgrade the US bonds.....and this is actually a bigger deal than anything else.  The odds that Moody might trigger their downgrade by Friday?  I'd put pretty good odds unless something major happens by Tuesday night.  How big a deal will this be?   We've come to face a debt ceiling episode a number of times over two hundred years.....but having our bond downgraded is going to be a new experience and you probably won't like the outcome of that.  The curious thing is the new Republican plan will be a time-limited effort....where we face the same issue by spring of 2012, in the midst of the election.  This means that we barely get out of this mess....take a deep breath....and then go into an election period with the debt as the number one issue.  That's the last thing on earth that the President and his election team would like to see.