Tuesday, 26 July 2011

The Speech

I sat and watched the President's speech last night over the debt.  There are three observations I can make.

First, he should not have mentioned that Reagan went through this eighteen times and Bush did it seven times.  Any idiot would hear that and ask why we don't meet every eight months and vote on this again.....which is something he really doesn't want to happen.  Politically, there's trouble ahead for his re-election if he has to face this in the spring or summer again.

Second, blaming Bush works for maybe eighteen months.....but after 30 months....it just isn't worth mentioning.  Will he still blame Bush six years from now when he's wrapping up his final year?  Will the next Democrat to occupy the office of the Presidency blame Bush?  Will they blame Bush in 2025?

Finally, this speech (at the halfway point) started to sound more like a re-election speech than a speech to get people onboard with his plan (well, yeah....there is no plan....so let's move on).  I've listened to about eighteen speeches now since he took office.  The last couple of speeches have lost some of the enthusiasm that you kinda expected there in the beginning.

What occurs over the next ten days?  I suspect that Harry Reid would really like to wrap up this mess because he knows it's draining support for the re-election campaign for a couple of Democratic senators....and frankly, he's got better things to do than hang around the White House on Saturdays.  There will be this massive compromise effort....where most of the Republican plan is kept and the next debt ceiling emergency is neatly arranged for January 2013.  For the President, this doesn't help much because it'll turn the entire election into debt discussion and how he can't spend money on much of anything.  And for Moodys?  They may still downgrade the US bonds.  And that will turn the four-star mess into a five-star mess.

Simply Observations

For most of you who've never been to DC....we have rules on METRO (our subway & bus system).  One of those rules is....no beverages (no water, no ice, no soda, etc).  It's been that way a number of years.  Well....there's issues since this heat episode started.  The buses and trains can't chill to any appropriate temperature.  You could walk onboard a subway car, and it'd be 105 degrees.  So, they announced a lessening of the rules.....to allow you to drink water (from a bottle).  That lasted about one day.  Today, the bosses of METRO came right back...no beverages.  They don't want folks getting worried about wet floors or potential urine (you can't tell in DC, trust me).  Meanwhile, no one can understand how a guy can survive for fifteen minutes onboard a train where the car is 100 degrees.

"Just remember, this is the United States of America. We write 80 million checks a month."  Words by Timmy Geithner.  I sat there for five minutes looking at that.  Around eighty years ago....I doubt if we wrote more than 2k checks a month.  So what we are saying here....out of 300 million Americans.....that one out of four Americans is getting a check via this great system.  The odds of us doubling this in thirty years?  Better than 50-50 chance.  

How the Norway killer thinks: Imagine you having a long-awaited family reunion....you and your seven brothers & sisters.  So everyone shows up and you discover that Karl (your brother) married this gal who is extremely religious and has no tolerance to anyone who is of a different belief.  Karl's three kids?  They have no behavior control and mostly try to tell other kids what they ought to be doing.  You like Karl but the rest of his family are a pain in the butt.  Most of your brothers and sisters all agree that it was a great event but they really don't like Karl's wife continually telling them of the terrible things they are doing and how her life is so wonderful.  You try to continue the meetings once or twice a year, but find a sister here or a brother there.....won't attend.  After three years....only one other sibling will come to your party when Karl and his wife attends.  The others?  They won't say nothing to Karl and avoid negative comments whenever possible.  You accept all of this and keep running this invitation business....just gazing the other way at Karl's idiot wife...pretending she's not there.  So in Norway, England, Germany, Denmark, France, etc......there's all these irritated people who've quietly sat on their hands and just plain agreed to avoid talking badly about Muslims.   Like the older brother in my analogy.....it's best to just keep going forward.  The problem is....there's a growing number of people who are openly angry and hostile over events.  So there are these people who starting to blame everyone except the Muslims.  You can call it stupid and foolish, but they've rationalized this to the point that they think they are doing the right thing.  The sad thing?  Innocent people end up having to die because one group of people started the problem of being a pain-in-the-butt, and the blame gets shifted to the innocent people who just accepted the pain-in-the-butt folks.