Friday, 27 July 2012

The Coming Wave

This sequestion episode discussed on the news finally came around to reality this week as folks kinda admitted that it went past just contractors for the Department of Defense being let go in the thousands…..they’d also have to cut regular civilian employees….maybe as many as ten to fifteen percent of the work force.

The pace of this mess? Well….they admitted to Congress yesterday that they were barely into the planning stage, but that they’d have to start sending out warning notices to folks in early November, and some regular civilian employees would actually be cut in January.

As you can guess, it’s turned into a water-fountain topic. You figure ten percent of the folks gone by late spring of 2013 as you look around the office. There’s no real logic to this. One might assume that they’d try to encourage the older guys up around sixty to sixty-five to just plain retire. There might be a $25k bonus offered up if they’d just accept retirement and walk away.

The problem is….a bunch of guys have kids in college or their 401ks really got screwed two years ago or they still have eight years of mortgage left to go on this overly expensive house.

So I’m kinda expecting some long discussions in August with the bosses and they try to figure out how many to let go. Then you move into September, and October…identifying the folks by name. Folks will discuss the impact…..what work continues on, and what work get terminated. Office space will come up as a topic because there’s going to be empty cubicle space. Even parking permits will come up because now there are fewer folks parking around the building by spring of next year.

I’m guessing a few guys here and there….will suddenly find their safe and comfortable government job to be not so safe. Even for myself….I might have to start thinking about long-haul trucking, or maybe working for the National Park Service.

There’s two things to ponder from this though. First, a bunch of these folks all reside in the Virginia region, and they are likely now to ask a bunch of stupid questions for this fall. If you ask me….it’s going to swing 75k votes very easily now.

The second thing….is a bunch of folks are going to worry about things, and ask daily by mid-November what Congress and the Senate will do. If this is a lousy loss for the Democrats....they might just slide toward the door and let the Republicans work on this in January....but by then, folks are now out-processing and there just won't be any way work a miracle.

If I were a betting person….I’d say that November is going to be this big huge mess for someone to clean up. And it just won’t be pretty.

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