Sunday, 5 August 2012

November Worst Case Scenario

The November election has this one scenario which promises to really drag things down....if it occurs.

Let's say that President Obama wins the election by an Electoral College edge of 70 votes.  The President can walk back into the White House in January and feel pretty positive.

But let's say that 53 Republicans come out and win in the Senate, and a simple majority of five-plus Republicans win in the House.

You end up with a Senate that can't really accomplish anything unless a couple of Democrats cross the line....which they won't.

So we start January of 2013, with a pretty lousy situation.  The President is stuck with no real budget fix, and simply moves forward with nothing much on the plate except signing treaties and making speeches.  The whole of 2013 is worthless, and by the summer of 2014....we are back into a four-star election frenzy....where the Senate gets shifted around to a fifty-fifty mix, and House that might be one-vote plus-up for the Democrats.

So we move onto 2015 and 2016....with mostly a President of almost no accomplishments, and a health care program that most Americans now say is failed but they can't really say what the fix ought to be.

You end up with a marginal four-year period that no one can say much about for historical purposes....except the economy was locked into neutral and not moving in any direction.

That is the worst case scenario.....sadly.

No comments: