Tuesday, 7 August 2012

The General Problem

Rumor has it.....that Mitt is about to pick General Petraeus as his VP.  How much validity would I put into such a report?  Maybe fifty percent.

What the press does say...is that Mitt apparently met with the General in the past week....up in New Hampshire...quietly.

I'm guessing that the Secret Service detail  reported back to their bosses at the White House, and someone kinda hinted that the General met with Mitt.  The President probably stood there for sixty seconds....thinking it was a joke, and then realized it wasn't a joke.  You can imagine the flurry of meetings that then took place.

What if?

The truth?  Mitt could scare the whole campaign team of President Obama now....triggering hours and hours of speculation....with talk from one coast to the other.  Folks would want immediate polling data....what would the General do to the entire election.  At least $500k would be wasted on a dynamic poll to show results in the dozen close-call states.

My humble guess?  I don't think the General wants the job.  He's got a government job already and pretty happy where he is.  What advantage exists here?  If Mitt were to win.....the general would have to stay around for eight years, but he'd be virtually guaranteed to win in 2024 as the Republican candidate.  Would he want to stick around for sixteen years?  You just don't know.

As for the odds here?  If the General did jump into the race....I'd say Mitt picks up five points in a matter of two weeks.  The debates?  The General would tear up VP Joe.....and give Mitt another two or three points.  In the end...I'd give Mitt a 56 percent win over the President's 43 percent.  Without the General?  I think it's closer to 50-50.

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