Friday, 19 October 2012

The Sixth of November

Six November is less than three weeks away.  The evening of Six November will prove to be a difficult moment for political side over another.  Based on polling data, there is a swing in play now.  It's a feeling that some felt in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.  Things kinda fell completely apart for the Carter team in the last two months, and there was almost nothing they could say or do to reverse the trend.

Some will say that media elites will mostly fall silent by eleven PM that evening and not be able to handle explanations.  By the next day.....economic experts will start to appear on various channels and note the terrible woes of the incoming presidency and how they will be unprepared for things, and unable to make their policies work.

My humble guess is that VP Joe will take the seventh of November off.....probably open up a case of beer and talk NFL football, NCAA bowl choices, and the best clam chowder you can find in Delaware.

Secretary of State Clinton?  She's quietly leave the office by mid-day and mostly avoid discussions with anyone over the results.  I think she will see so many screw-ups by this administration as leading up to the loss, and she would have ran a totally different campaign.

Fox News?  They will move directly to the cabinet choices and who fits into what role.  I doubt if they even waste a minute to trying to explain how something happened or how one campaign failed to capitalize on results.

The Hollywood crowd?  I would imagine they fall into a disbelief moment.  Everyone they talked to....was voting President Obama....how else could he lose?

How do you slip like this?

There are three simple explanations.  First, in the first two years....it should have been three factors on the table....the economy, jobs, and budget cutting.  Everyone should have focused on bringing trust back into the heartland, and stabilizing the economy.  Maybe in the third year, focus on a small health-care improvement law and a small immigration reform act. You'd still have full control of the House if you had prioritized like that. Things would be better today.....and more independent voters would have recognized that.

Second, the speeches laid out in 2008....made this lofty projection of where we'd all be in 2012.  Well....those predictions were way beyond belief, and dragged folks off to expect too much.  At best, the administration probably accomplished one-third of what they talked about in 2008.  It's ok to aim high....but in this case....it was beyond belief.

Third, you basically had the luck of following George Bush.  To be honest....you had all these great media folks projecting everything you did of 'solid-gold'.  As the anti-Bush, you were given lots of free passes.  You got the Nobel Peace Prize for following George Bush.  The truth is.....that was like turbo fuel running through your administration.  You had to show results after the Bush period, and it just wasn't working that way.

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