Saturday, 20 October 2012

US-Iran Nuclear Treaty

What does a US-Iran nuclear treaty change.....if it were to happen....let's say in the next two weeks?

Well...it gives the news guys almost an entire day of no election topic except this magnificent treaty that the administration was able to conclude and save the world from yet another war.  Kissenger can crawl out of the closet and give a dozen interviews.  All of the former Carter-era foreign policy experts will get at least an hour or two with the big news networks.  Hillary Clinton can probably find enough time in one afternoon to do sixteen interviews.

It helps the Obama administration on the foreign policy issue.  It helps people feel a perception that peace may have been found...in our time.

On the other side of this scale...it's basically a fake treaty of sorts for Iran and merely buys them another three years to keep working on what they have in the secret underground research facilities.  The Israeli folks will be disturbed over lack of any knowledge with the treaty being worked out.  And most foreign governments will be amused over what looks like a Chamberlain-moment (1938), where a treaty merely led to World War II.

The odds of such a treaty occurring?  A month ago....I would have said one-percent.  Today....probably a eighty-percent chance.

So as next week flows through.....expect somewhere around the last week of the month for this huge announcement of a treat with Iran.  Don't bother watching the news....just skip over to ESPN and watch the sports news.  There's not much you can grasp out of this....except it's stuff written on a piece of paper.

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