Wednesday, 1 February 2012

The Iran Strategy

In the coming weeks.....as election fever tightens up, and the President reaction factor becomes an issue....there will stand Iran in the shadows.  They'd like to toss a curve toward the administration and prove their status in the world.  There are some problems here....they simply don't have the military to make a huge fight.  So they need to use their limited assets in a particular way.

Asset number one.....the thirty foot patrol boats with four guys in each.  Basically, it's a suped-up fishing boat with Atash number one at some machine gun on the front, and Astash number two at some machine gun on the rear, with fancy blue-suited officer (in beard and sunglasses) directing everybody, and some petty officer at the steering wheel....guiding the twin-Evinrude motor boat along.  Imagine sixty of these little boats coming out of Iran....along the 50 mile straits.....like a bunch of bumble bees.  They whack at five or six super-tankers trying to exit or enter the straits.  Even if they don't sink any.....the amount of damage would be enough to scare every major tanker operation into halting movement of precious oil.

Asset number two.....the McHale's navy PT boat....with a couple extra machine gun Atash's onboard....and a kid who has the button to fire four torpedoes....at some unlucky oil tanker.  Just one firing and a miss, would be enough to make all tankers stop movement.

Asset number three?  A couple of vessels whose job it is....to lay down mines.  Through the press today.....it was laid out that just a thousand mines laid out in the straits....would be enough to shut down the channel area for a month while the US would have to go and clean up the mess left there.  One month of no oil movement?  You can figure oil would double in cost.

This isn't a four-star navy.  In fact, there are probably twenty-five countries with a more complete and capable navy than Iran has.  The simple truth is....you only need a small force to make everyone's life miserable in the oil tanker business.

So in the coming months, you can anticipate a number of Astash guys standing around and trying to arrange for injuries....to avoid being on duty on the day that Mullah Joe orders the navy to bring the American navy to it's knees.  The sad truth is that the moment that this ragtag group of groups resembles a threat....every single vessel....even the thirty-foot cruiser....will be identified as a threat and sunk.  Just being within twenty feet of the cruiser, will be enough to get you within the destruction range of a $100k US missile fired by some unmanned drone.

As the months proceed on.....just settle back for some comical Iranian strategy to take place, and you can sit at your Lazy-boy recliner and watch a videoclip of a $100k missile being wasted on a $8k cruiser, with $3k in machine guns onboard, with four Astash guys moving onto Jihad heaven and some bunch of virgin babes waiting for them at the front gates.

Just Observations

The House is set to vote on a resolution to ensure no pay-raise for government workers....while the President's plan is a half-percent raise.  We government folks....have gone two years now....in a frozen status.  We get the yearly bump-up on 'steps', which tends to amount to $2k or more (GS-12 or above).  I pondered over this.  You can go three or four years without any pay-raise....but eventually, you will get pushed into the corner and have to hand out a three-to-four percent raise....higher than what you'd normally ever hand out.  This freeze game helps to make the Republicans look good in an election year.  I would speculate that we will see a freeze for this year, and next....but by 2014....the Republicans will find negative feelings by gov't employees brewing and mid-term elections will create a hostile environment for them.

The Romney win?  One state.....half the normal delegates because of an early primary....a ton of money had to be spent.  I don't see this meaning much.  He absolutely had to win Florida and Newt didn't.  Onward, we go.

The new WikiLeaks plan?  Well....the boys are thinking of buying some man-made island, where they will bring in a generator and servers....and avoid any control by governments.  It's some deal off the coast of the UK.  I thought about this for five minutes.  Basically, you are in a seawater rich area...with computer equipment.  Unless you make the server room air-tight.....everything will start to corrode within weeks.  The generator?  It'll require lots of fuel....brought out on a weekly basis.  It'd only take two idiots in a shrimp boat....to come along and blast the man-made island....bringing the WikiLeaks operation to a halt.  Just seems to be a lot of money in their hands....that they want to burn.

We had this little interesting bout in the Pentagon in the last couple of days....two maintenance guys getting into a fight.  One said a few things....got the other guy upset.....and fighting was the only way to end the problem.  Sadly, they did this at work....in the Pentagon.  So the management guys got involved.  Both got sent home for a couple of days.....unpaid, of course.  It's a rare thing to get any fights in the Pentagon.  Of they had advertised the "event"....there would have been 3k of us to pour out into the center courtyard, to view the fight.  If it'd been two ladies.....it would have brought out 5k folks.

We have this little rule in Virginia....you can only buy one handgun per month.  It's been on the books since 1994.  The story behind this.....folks back in the early 1990s perceived that folks were just buying too many handguns, week after week, and this translated into some feared situation.  In the minds of most Virginia residents....this was a stupid law.  So this week....the Virginia House is busy....working to end the law.  There are several observations to make here.  First, with the vastly improved ID check in the state.....there's just not much of a reason to limit any individual.  Second, you had lots of folks who simply went to a friend, relative or co-worker....and bought what they needed....avoiding legit gun shops.  Then you come to this logic which started this mess....fewer sold guns would equal a safer state.  After fifteen year, you can't produce a single fact to show a gun per month limit has any advantages.  So, I'd expect by this fall....you can walk into a gun shop and buy four pistols.....and guys will start to feel more secure.  We, here in the Commonwealth, will eventually have a pistol in each room of the house....in our car and cartrunk, and even on our lawn-mowers.

Finally, with our local Alexandria guy who ended up dead in the Maryland well....Lenny Harris....the cops got another break in the case....arresting Linwood Johnson.  The most they will say presently is that both knew each other, but nothing else.   There is a money angle to this story, but it'll take weeks for the cops to spread the whole case out.  I'm betting on money being owed in some fashion.