Wednesday, 7 March 2012

The Reality of Being a Rush Sponsor

After eleven Rush Limbaugh sponsors hopped off the wagon and declared themselves to be "Rush-free"......things on Monday took a shift.

Apparently, at least with the Carbonite company.....the folks who want to back up your data because you worry about that.....suddenly found folks calling in and wanting to quit their service.  They haven't discussed numbers yet, and because of contracts involved.....some folks are announcing their intent to leave months away from the actual end of the contract....but it's a potential mess for the company.

By close of business yesterday, Carbonite had lost twelve percent on its stock.  I would take a humble guess that it'll lose at least three or four percent today, and by Friday find it's entire week loss around twenty percent.

When they finally discuss the numbers in a month or so....of who quit.....there will be a secondary decrease on the stock.  By May, I expect some unfriendly buyer to appear and attempt to pick up the company at a pretty low price....maybe Goggle, maybe Microsoft....but it'll be a low-ball bid and Carbonite won't be able to fight them off or get a decent price for their company.

The problem here is that the big way that Carbonite became a major player in this service game.....was by getting onto the Rush Limbaugh show and talking up their service.  So in the big scheme of things...I'm guessing over half of the paying customers of Carbonite are Rush-supporters.  By skipping out, they risked most everything they had, and may not survive intact.....ending up as a sub-company or group under Google.   The sad thing here....is that it'll all be remembered....over the term "slut", and a decade from now, folks will sit around and laugh about how Carbonite came to be bought out.