Wednesday, 23 January 2013

A Little Test Incentive

The Navy started today with hand-held breathalyzers....which will be pulled out at random and used on various folks....any hour of the day.

A problem?  Well...you don't know.

Most sailors will do fine on the first random selection....but if this is a monthly thing or even five or six times a year....there's going to be some hostility about it eventually.

In the late 70s in the Air Force....I can attest to the fact that most every guy would show up at 8AM in a sober condition.  Around noon.....they would go downhill.  The older guys who'd been through Thailand or Nam....generally always stepped out for lunch and a beer (maybe two beers....maybe three beers).  Somewhere in the mid 80's....these guys disappeared and by the mid-90's, it was a harsh environment for a guy to have a beer or two at lunch.

The problem is that war over the past decade has done some odd things to people.  Some folks need that drink at 10AM, and they might be putting half-a-bottle of booze away by mid-afternoon.

What the Navy doesn't want....is some accident to occur and it's the fault of a couple of drunk guys.  Maybe this makes sense in the long run.

The California Tax Saga

What Phil Mickelson said about his California tax situation has to be explained to most folks.

First, when you think up some idea to pack up and leave the trailer court, you don't say nothing until Friday....hook up your trailer....leave....get two states away by Saturday morning....and kinda wait for crap from the trailer court manager.

In this case, Phil telegraphed the California state tax commission  and they just might start up an audit today.....just to hinder and make his life and that of the tax accountant a mess (all compliments of themselves).  So you never say nothing in public, until you've packed up, moved to Vegas, and then send them a card to say you've left their state and will never pay taxes there again.  At that point, they could audit you for the day you left, or unpaid bills....but it's a difficult mess.

Imagine being a California state tax lawyer, and coming to Texas to get a search warrant fixed up.  Folks in Midland, Texas will ask stupid questions and make your attempt to seize computers or records miserable.  Same likely goes for any county in Nevada except for Vegas.

How many folks are thinking this way?  You just don't know.  There's bound to be several thousand businessmen looking at moving out of the state.  Maybe you can leave one guy or just a small group of guys in California, and just run an annex of your operation.

I'm guessing some folks are looking at a RV operation where you drive in for six weeks....conduct business quietly, and then go back to Vegas to do your real work for the next two months.  As long as you avoid going over ninety days....you are fairly safe.  I would imagine that the cops will be looking for RV offices and conducting search warrants.

The worst part of this mess is six to eight months from now....when a couple of guys gather at some table in a small town outside of Riverside for their monthly meeting of small business owners, and realize that half the group have up and left.  This kinda creates the tidal wave affect.....so more folks start talking about this. By the end of 2014, you might see as much as ten percent of the state's current small business operations gone.

So this brings you to two questions...first, how do you as a political figure now explain this to the public, and react to $400 million less in the revenue tax bucket?  If this is a trend....just how bad does it get next year, and can you explain it a second time?

But then we get to this very curious question....how would you attract these guys back?  The answer?  Currently, you can't.  You need a billion new bucks a year out of thin air....and you just won't get that.

My prediction is this in 2020 (seven years from now).  A third of all small business operations that existed in 2010....are gone.  The state of California will now run up the cost of tuition for one year of community college at $20k a year.  You want a year of real college....figure $26k a year.  Out of state?  Maybe $48k a year.

Live in a rough neighborhood?  Don't figure more cops but less cops.  Seen houses burn down because the fire department cut the number of trucks in half?  Yeah....it might be a problem.

Folks actually might start talking of Arkansas being better than California.  That's a switch.