Sunday, 24 August 2014

My Ferguson Predictions

For a number of days, I've been watching the Ferguson, Missouri situation.  This is my script on how this will all play out.

1.  The cop will be charged and brought into court.  The Grand Jury really can't avoid doing this....mostly because of the pressure from the public.  The trial period?  Oh, that will be at least May of 2015 at the earliest.  Anyone thinking of swift or immediate effects....is smoking dope.

2.  By the end of 2014, I anticipate at least a dozen members of the police force will have moved on.  There's only around fifty cops in town.....anticipate a new crowd hired....mostly black officers to appease the public.  By May of 2015 (my expected date of the trial)?  Figure another six to ten will have found new jobs and moved on.

3.  An odd thing will occur in the first week of this trial.  The autopsy will reveal that the shots came from only inches away from the body, and went in from a downward position....meaning the cop shot upward as the guy likely launched himself at the cop.  Remember....the victim is taller than the cop.  The first witness with be the victim's buddy who was with him.....describing him and the victim on their knees as the shooting occurs, and the cop standing six to ten feet away.  The defense attorney will ask if he really saw the situation....because the shots went in a upward slant....meaning the cop would have to be almost laying down on the ground, to meet the factual evidence presented.

4.  At this point, the judge will quietly ask the prosecutor and defense attorney to meet with him.....the case is screwed up because the witness testimony just won't work with the evidence.  Go to lesser charges or expect at best a hung jury or a acquittal of all charges by the jury.  Nothing much happens to change the prosecutors stance.

5.  The case ends as an acquittal or hung jury.

6.  Riots start immediately that night in Ferguson, with the new police force doing mostly nothing but driving around, picking up donuts, and avoiding any contact with the public.  At least twenty business operations are looted to a significant degree and ten businesses are set on fire.  Owners were smart in buying insurance to cover the situation.....collecting on the pay-out.....and at least a dozen business operations will shut down completely.  Lack of trust in the cops protecting the public and business operations will lead to around twenty-five total business fronts shutting down by the end of 2015.

7.  The cops?  Well....with less business fronts....come less tax revenue.  The city decreases its budgets and lays out five cops by spring of 2016....mostly the new black cops who came in on the force.  They pursue handing out more traffic tickets, to increase cash revenue for the city.....infuriating the public even more.

8.  Lack of confidence with the mayor and city council....end up with a total change in leadership by 2018.  By 2022.....between corruption, drugs, and a lack of trust in the cops.....Ferguson will be considered one of the worst places in Missouri to live.

9.  The toxicology tests from the guy shot?  Oh, that will reveal "weed" in his system to a significant degree, and I humbly suggest that PCP will be found in some quantity.  The rest of the autopsy will suggest that the victim had to be standing and within inches of the cop.....when he received the various shots fired.  It will never fit within the description given by the victim's buddy.  No one will be able to explain with a decent story how the two conflicting stories fit together.

Yeah, it's a screwed up mess.  And if you live in Ferguson.....it's probably best to start thinking about moving or leaving town.  Staying just isn't a long term positive.

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