Tuesday, 22 April 2014

Election Talk

In the late 1990s....some folks got together and discussed this joint topic of priority amongst themselves....government regulation growth on a massive scale....limits on free trade....and media attempts to slam capitalism.  They ended up forming a 'club' of sorts....Club for Growth is the actual title of the group.  They found financial support, and then went to the 501c paperwork....getting everything approved and avoiding taxation.

I won't say that the club is successful or a failure in the making.....but they tend to draw political folks to their meetings and attempt to get support.

None of this really matters, but we are in the midst of a campaign season, and Club for Growth got dragged into an Arkansas campaign episode revolving around prime-time Democrat already in the Senate seat....and a young Republican Representative from the state.....challenging the incumbent on a hefty scale.  Adding to the spice of the mess....is that the Republican is a former military member, a Harvard graduate, and be capable of thinking and talking at the same time (a talent that most from Arkansas would agree is hard to find in a political figure).

The Republican?  Tom Cotton.  The Democrat?  Mark Pryor.

Pryor decided to pull out the disclosure agreement that Cotton had to do....when he went off to a weekend meeting at a Palm Beach resort hotel.  You see....Club for Growth asked Cotton to come (obviously, they didn't see much need to invite Pryor).  As a guest....they paid around $1,200 for Cotton to be there.  Pryor wanted you to know the cost of episode: (1) food - $82 for what likely amounts to a breakfast these days at a swanky hotel ($20 minimum), and a evening dinner ($50 minimum).  (2) the hotel costs....amounting to $499.  Resorts will never charge less than $300 an evening....simply for the fact that they offer up fancy pools, cocktail bars, and free parking. (3) Travel costs got rounded off at $680.  I'm guessing that Cotton got a decent deal....flying out of Reagan International on a Friday afternoon.

What's all this add up to?  The democrat in this case (Pryor) wants to identify Cotton with swank, upscale resorts, reckless spending, and living a lifestyle way beyond the typical guy in Arkansas.  It would be a decent argument if Pryor would put up a year's worth of his unofficial travels and tell everyone about his conferences, his swanky hotels, and his t-bone steak dinners.  Presently, no one knows much about his travels or his receipts.  So it becomes a comical affair.

Senator Pryor is even being pushed to get into various debates with Representative Cotton.  Cotton is asking for five public debates.  I'm guessing Pryor at best.....will accept ONE single debate, and allow it only two weeks prior to the election.  Cotton might say fine....then launch four other debates with himself standing against an empty chair, and making Pryor look foolish.

All of this leads to a hectic and frustrating November election for a number of Democratic contenders. Presently....folks are pretty peppy that six Democratic Senate seats will be lost as a minimum. There's one Republican seat which looks like a genuine loss and going to the Democrats.....with four other seats tossed in the air entirely.

As the smoke clears after election day?  Cotton beats Pryor by nine percent (my humble guess).  The Republicans clear 51 total seats, with two independents, and 47 Democrats.  McConnell taking Harry Reid's leadership position?  No.....McConnell will lose to the Tea Party candidate in the primary, and will be oddly out of the game come January.  McCain as lead?  No....at least half of the Republicans will go against him for the job.  I suspect that Deb Fischer (rancher-Republican from Nebraska)....might get the nod and bring a new perspective into the Senate and public forum.

As for the President?  He had six years to accomplish a big list of things, and probably got twenty percent of the list accomplished.  His negotiation skills to deal with both a Republican House and Republican Senate?  Zero.  I see 2015 and 2016 as a pretty dismal period for the President and his staff.

And Senator-to-be Cotton?  Well....Arkansas might find themselves a fairly smart guy.....possibly presidential material in twelve years.  Just my humble opinion.