Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Cantor

By now, you've had a coffee, watched the news, ate a donut, and suddenly come to realize that Eric Cantor lost his primary race in Virginia yesterday.  Shocking....indeed.  Rather than waste an hour watching various news segments to figure out the whole logic to this loss....let me briefly give you the four points of significance.

First, federal elections in November typically draw the BIGGEST crowd of voters.  The state elections every two years?  A step or two down, and at least ten to twenty percent less of a vote unless big issues are apparent.  Then you come to primary elections....where in most states...you might be lucky to draw fifty percent of the registered voter count.  Split between Republicans and Democrats.....primary elections just don't generate interest.

If you come to realize this minimum impact, and want to take on the big guys of the establishment.....you carry one simple message, and hope to get fifty-one percent of the vote.  In this case, Dave Brat got fifty-four percent and really clobbered Eric Cantor (one of the top ten Republican faces in the nation).

Second, Dave Brat won this primary, with a twenty-three year old campaign advisor.  Cantor had access to various seasoned advisors....and it didn't really matter.

Third, the immigration issue?  Well....it's poison there in Virginia.  A high number of Republican voters simply don't agree with the national issue and the trend.  They sent their message as best as they can.  The worry now for establishment Republicans?  It's best to just skip around immigration for 2014 and not attempt any solution, period.

Fourth, Tea Party spiral?  Sure, go ahead and keep saying it.  Events like this keep putting the growing trend back into focus.  For both parties....it's a problem.  For Democrats....it'd be a simple game of taking twenty-percent of their normal vote and forcing some Democrats to take a different view on taxes and federal spending.  For Republicans?  It's a scary thought that establishment guys can have plenty of funding but not be able to carry an election.

I noted the term "conservative" being thrown around in campaign ads in Alabama two weeks ago.  It wasn't for governor or state attorney general.....it was for county commission and public utilities commission positions.  People pay attention to little slogans like this now.

More changes for the Republicans in 2014?  We might have peaked for this year....maybe.