Saturday, 14 November 2015

Hillary at the Convention

It's not worth a big discussion....but it did get brought up this week.  The AP (Associated Press) sat down and asked about 'superdelegates' to the Democratic Convention.

Most people, if you ask them....have no idea what a superdelegate is.  When you look at the total head count of folks inside of the arena when they gather for the Convention.....there's roughly 5,554 folks who have a vote.  Naturally, you would assume they are all part of the primary system.  Well....no.

You need 2,778 to win the Convention episode.  Roughly half of the 5,554 folks will come there as undeclared people.....associated with the primary votes or states.  These are VIP related votes and can vote anyway they desire.

The AP sat down and canvased a fair number of the Superdelegates......367 total folks.  Out of this group.....Bernie Sanders got endorsed by eight people.

If you do the math, this means that Hillary logically has gotten 96-percent of the Superdelegates locked up and fixed for her.

So, for the fifty primary states....Hillary has to win three states at best (even small states like Delaware, North Dakota and Hawaii) to win the Convention.  Bernie could take forty-five states with absolute wins, and it won't matter.....Hillary wins at the Convention.

Even if you use the likely scenarios that Bernie will possibly win twenty states in the primary.....it simply doesn't matter.  The Convention deal and the Superdelegates make this all a worthless gimmick.

The Republicans?  Well, yeah, they have Superdelegates as well.  They were supposed to be there and help Jeb cross the line with twenty-odd state wins (under the scenario that existed six months ago).  Now?  Jeb is running a marginal campaign....probably can't win more than three states at best and it would be a huge embarrassment for the Convention to suddenly throw up every Superdelegate and the three state delegates up, and push Jeb across the line.  No one would take the Republicans serious any more and everyone would laugh over why the primary even needs to be conducted.

All of this leads one to question why bother with primaries and state elections.  Just let the insiders put their guy up and go through some theater-like games to make people think it's all 'real'.  On the plus side here?  You can go ahead and bet money now that Hillary will be the one sitting there in November of 2016....running for the Democrats.  Even if she only wins three primaries....she will be the pick.

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