Thursday, 30 July 2015

The Reality of Ted Cruz

Here's an odd fact to the next President's agenda.  Somewhere between 2016 and 2024....there's four Supreme Court justices who will retire. Presently, Scalia is 79.  Kennedy is 79.  Ginsburg is 82.  And Breyer is 77.  Toss in the possibility that Thomas at 67 (this year)....might be willing to retire somewhere in this period as well.  So maybe up to five replacements occurring.

Somewhere in the first year of the new Republican administration (my humble guess as to the winner of the election).....I think Scalia and Kennedy will give the nod because the Senate has Republican votes to back up the replacement of both gentlemen.

I will predict that Senator Cruz doesn't win the Presidency but gets picked up as the Attorney General and will actively serve in that post for five years.  Maybe with Thomas retiring by 2021....Cruz will be offered the position and accept it.

A shocker?  No.

Taft did the same thing, and if you look at Taft's history.....he actually wanted the Supreme Court job more than the President's job.  I think Cruz is look at this in the same way.  He reshuffle the Attorney General's office and impress some people.  In the end, he'll be in the right job.

As for this period of changing Supreme Court justices? I suspect the Senate will be more of a battleground as both Ginsburg and Breyer are changed out.  Oddball characters....likely in the late sixties.....might be selected, with some appreciation of a different crowd with different attitudes.

The Larry and Lincoln Show

I sat last night and watched eight minutes of RT (Russia Today) with Larry King's interview with Democratic contender Lincoln Chafee.

I've watched two speeches by Chafee over the past decade and will admit that he will occasionally throw out a wild idea out there that most people would get thrilled about.  The problem is...the other ninety-percent of his speeches are mostly....well....hot air.  On the Obama scale of enthusiastic speakers....Chafee is probably a 'four' at best out of ten.  

Larry's interview didn't really go that well.  I ended up thinking both guys were pretty low on passion and zeal.  If you were looking for some oomph in their conversation....it probably ended about sixty seconds into the episode. At the eighth minute of this conversation.....I changed channels.  Maybe it got better as time went by but with Larry and his style of the past couple of years....you shouldn't expect that.

As for Chafee in Iowa....against Hillary?  The field is basically Hillary, O'Malley, Bernie, and former Senator Webb of Virginia.

If you cross off Hillary, then most folks from Iowa will admit they've never heard of any of these folks.  No name recognition.  Maybe it's an odd thing, but you might reach a point where Democratic enthusiasm for the Presidential race in 2016 is a bit less than the norm, and it hurts various state-level Democrats as they try to get the public all pumped up over the election.