Sunday, 23 August 2015

How Trump Might Think

There's been a fair amount of chat this week over the Republican Headquarters and this idea of confronting Donald Trump.  Basically....he'll have to pledge to NOT run as an independent if he wants an "invite" to the next Republican debate (herded by CNN News).  It's more of a rumor than fact presently.  My hunch is that several folks want this forced upon Trump and disqualify him from the whole debate episode.

Timing?  Well....16 September.  So, if it were to happen.....it'd likely be finalized by the first week in September, three weeks away.

It would be awful stupid to invent this rule out of thin air, and now impose it upon Donald Trump.  But, no one says that the Republican Headquarters in Virginia is made up of rocket-scientists.

The influence on Republican-leaning individuals?  I'd take a guess that half of all Republicans would take this the wrong way, and hint through to local party guys that they might be finished with the Party and it's schemes.  It might actually scare a number of people about what happens in November of 2016.

Trump?  I have this funny feeling that he's a bit smarter than the Republicans think.

If I were Trump......I'd go over to MSNBC and ask them what they'd charge to run a full-hour on 16 September....at the same time of the CNN debate.  MSNBC would grin and give some round number.  You have to remember.....they are making lousy profits and they wouldn't mind cancelling an entire evening of the news to get some real cash flow.

So, Trump would own that one hour.  Then he'd turn around and ask Clint Eastwood if he had anything planned for that evening.  Clint would grin and say he was free.

Then some evening deal would be arranged in the midwest....maybe Ohio....maybe Kansas....maybe in Colorado.  They'd invite a hundred folks to come in, and Clint would stand there and simply moderate this debate.  He'd challenge folks to toss hard questions onto Trump.....not to just let him let him off the hook.

TV analysts would start to look at numbers.....CNN's debate with ten approved Republicans and MSNBC's one debate between the public and Trump.  Minute by minute....folks would be flipping over and watching Trump.  Twenty-five questions.....three or four honest and difficult debate moments with a upset mother or a disjointed Republican retiree.

Clint would wrap up the whole thing and gaze at some empty chair and just say something like.....this chair has been empty for an awful long time.  Maybe it's time to fill it with the right guy.....then Clint would just grin, and the camera would fade.

Analysts would say that for every single person who watched the regular CNN Republican debate.....there were five who watched MSNBC's Trump debate.  At that point, folks would admit, there's not much reason to continue the debates....it's over....Trump is the guy.

I can't see the Republican National Committee being this stupid.  But if they were....they might be surprised how much respect they've lost over the past decade, and people are tired of their gimmicks.

VP Joe as President?

There's a piece in today's political news that VP Joe Biden is traveling over to visit Senator Warren and have a chat.

Some people think (at least if you look at political journalists) that the race is finished and over for Hillary, and that the unremarkable crew (O'Malley, Webb and Socialist Bernie) won't attract any interest and hurt the overall party image.  The analogy I would use.....the Democrats for 2016 appear to be like the Washington Redskins of the past decade....where they always start with charged-up enthusiasm and by the middle-point of the season with their favored quarterback on some disabled list....folks give up because there's no way they can win.

So, there's this chatter over VP Joe and how he might get into the race.  Joe is 72 years old presently, and would be 74....if he did get into the race and actually win.  My hunch is that Joe would like to make the run....have Senator Warren as his VP, and leave after four years (age 78).....giving Warren the upper hand to be President in 2020.  VP Joe might be talking up the idea of Warren running as President and being Joe staying around for another eight years as VP again. Yeah, it'd be odd but Joe might like the job more than you'd think.

The odds of VP Joe running?  To be honest, there's just not that much enthusiasm for any of the Democrats....even Joe.  It's hard to analyze this and come to any rational reason for this lack of enthusiasm.  You would think over the past four years that various news outlets would have come out and talked up the next twenty-odd Democrats and their accomplishments.   Occasionally, you see the national news people talking up five or six Democratic Senators.....but it just doesn't come through as 'thrilling' or 'enchanting'.

What all of this means?  It's a lousy season for the Democrats and it'll hurt even more as lesser-positioned guys (running for state senator or governor) find no real enthusiasm being generated this year.  It might be an all-time record for Republican wins in 2016 unless something changes.