Monday, 25 January 2016

The Bloomberg Scenario

Will Bloomberg enter the 2016 election race?  The news media now says he's exploring the idea.  So my eight observations on this.

First, let's say that Bernie does well in the first five primary states and wins three of the five (I think this is now possible).  It would show Hillary in a weaken state.  If this was an election of just Bernie, Trump and Bloomberg....it'd suddenly become a difficult race to predict.  If this were Hillary, Trump and Bloomberg.....Hillary would be fairly safe, and Bloomberg at best....could only win two states in the election (my humble opinion).

Second, this could be about the fact that Bloomberg has heard that Hillary will face charges and likely have to drop out.  Maybe he believes his info, and that he'd do well in taking Democratic voters.

Third, there's no doubt that Democratic and Republican insiders (the top level in Fairfax).....really aren't happy with either Hillary or Trump.  They don't want the Clinton Foundation to be the 500-lb guerrilla in the room, and they don't like the idea of a untamed Donald running executive matters.  In this case, they'd prefer Bloomberg.

Fourth, there's this odd factor of straight-ticket voting.  Roughly sixty percent of the nation votes this way.  In some states.....more Democratic than Republican (California for example) and some where more Republican than Democrat (Texas for example).  Bloomberg would not be able to take their votes.

Fifth, the black vote.  So far, it's difficult to say for sure.....but it just seems like that Trump has gathered more enthusiasm for himself, than Hillary has.  Bloomberg would not able to sweep those votes over to his side.

Sixth, who would be Bloomberg's VP?  This person would have to be giving up their connection to both Republican and Democratic parties.  A woman?  More than likely.  But who would step up to this?

Seventh, if you had $500 million and a chance at this....as Bloomberg may have to finance the bulk of the race for himself.....what odds do you want?  Anything less than fifty-percent is not good enough.  You need a 51-percent deal or better.

Eighth, finally....this odd factor with electoral college votes.  If none of the three get the necessary votes to win.....it goes to the House to pick the winner. Each state delegation has ONE single vote.  I suspect that the game here is for Bloomberg to take two significant states (California and Florida), with one or two other states.  Without them....and Hillary/Trump splitting the rest.....it'd go to the House and their one state/one vote situation.  Who can take twenty-six states in this type of House vote?  Unknown.

If Jeb had done well.....if Hillary didn't have the email server issue.....if disgruntled voters didn't exist....if Bernie hadn't done so well with college kids.....well, things would be different.  So we may get Bloomberg.

The final observation?  Who says that Bloomberg is the ONLY guy thinking independent campaign for President?  If you just had one single crazy gal with name-appeal (Kadashian for example) to run strictly in California.....she'd likely win that one state.  In this age of internet and social media.....could a one-state player really disrupt politics by winning one single state?  Maybe.

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