Friday, 18 March 2016

The Merrick Garland Scenario

If you sit back and view the whole Supreme Court nominee situation....it'll likely go like this.

Garland will appear before the Senate Committee.....get some some tough questions....answer with either "I don't know how I'd handle that" or just smile and grin.  After seven days of questions....they will schedule a open day or two in the Senate....probably in mid-May.

The thing is....you need sixty votes.  Forty-four Democrats and two independents....will side with Garland, and I suspect that five Republicans will vote for him (they aren't up for re-election in 2016 or they may never go up for re-election again).  He will be voted down.

Then some debate will open up about why they can't do this with fifty-one votes, instead of sixty.  But you'd ask....back in 2010....why not make it an issue with Kagen's episode....allowing fifty-one to do the job?

The news folks will carry this fifty-one idea for two weeks.....then realize that no one really buys off on it.

A new candidate by the third week of May?  Yes.....even more moderate.....we will be told.  Around mid-June....the Senate committee will question this individual (probably a black female judge).

The first person (Garland) failed with fifty-one votes.  The second candidate will fail with fifty-five votes (another four Republicans will find some reason grin and say that they don't care about their re-election chances).

So, somewhere in August....my prediction is a third nominee comes up and somehow, fourteen Republicans are found to support that person.  I think at least three of the Senators will then face a recall election back in their state, and they will be unable to mount enough support....thus ending their career in DC.

The thing is.....most people will agree that the political process and the judicial process in America is "broke".  They don't see transparency, and they don't think DC can fix much of anything.  If anything....this simply concretes attitudes and behaviors to be anti-Republican and anti-Democrat.  So, in a sad way.....Trump makes perfect sense.

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