Monday, 25 July 2016

How To Screw Up the 2017 German National Election

I hate drawing road-maps for people, but in this case.....it's simply things to wonder about for the next fifteen-odd months:

1.  Watch thirty weekends of the next seventy weekends where some jihadist or crazy Syrian or mysterious Iraqi conduct some event which gets German national attention, and nothing seems to slow down the trend.

2.  Watch December of 2016 arrive and basically none of the accused sexual assault cases results in convictions with real jail time (out of more than 300 such cases sitting there potentially).

3.  Watch one out of every female voters in North Rhine Westphalia get so disenchanted that they actually vote AfD as a hostility vote.....which results in the spring of 2017 election shock of AfD "anti-immigration wave" Party with 25-percent of the state vote.

4.  Watch continual state-run news shocking the limited viewers they have with "let's get the facts before we tell the story" acting.

5.  Watch more of the general public asking if it's possible to make make one of the AfD platforms to either cut the TV yearly tax to state-run networks by 50-percent or cease it entirely.

6.  Watch the SPD try ninety-nine different ways of insulting Trump after November to get him into a anti-NATO or anti-Germany tirade.

7.  Watch the Koln cops and political folks screw up the December 31st New Year's Eve episode so much.....that another riot breaks out and 300 more women report sexual assaults.

8.  Watch Austria's re-vote in September of this year result in a right-wing win and an entire weekend of freaked-out German politicians who seem to be frustrated and dwell on this so much.....that the general public asks if we could possibly rush-up the national election of Germany a bit.

9.  Watch the Bundestag try to rig up some welcome-to-Germany package for 10,000 Turkish professors who were fired from their jobs in Turkey and the German university system suddenly saddled with trying to invent work for the new Turk immigrants while the public tries to understand what the end-result of this will be.

10.  Finally, watch the the summer of 2016 and summer of 2017 pool seasons across Germany end with over 300 groping incidents with 99-percent foreigners and the topic comes up on some German national chat forum, with no one in the forum willing to suggest what the problem might be.

The truth is.....the AfD folks ought to barely be getting five to seven percent of the vote right now.  Instead, depending on what state you poll.....it generally runs from nine percent to twenty-four percent.  If all ten of these events I described were to occur.....you'd get almost one-third of the national vote shifted around to the AfD.  It might not be enough to win, but it would trigger a really marginal coalition situation for four years and the public whining about lousy leadership and national accomplishments.


1 comment:

Norman Peterson said...

Good points...Personally, I think that if there were a major terror incident, the AfD probably would poll closer to 30%...a steady drip-drip-drip would result in what you are presenting. I just wonder what the CSU has in mind...if they have more than just immigration issues in common with the AfD. And with their rumbling about going national...well, a CSU-AfD coalition might be a possibility....leaving the former mainstream parties out in the cold....