Friday, 15 July 2016

44 - 37?

If you look up the latest poll between Trump and Hillary.....Trump leads now by 44-percent to Hillary's 37-percent.

Why suddenly the shift?  For weeks....maybe even six months....the trend suggested Hillary was always ahead by five to ten points.

There are only two ways of explaining this.

First, the polling folks knew weeks ago that the shift occurred and they delayed this through various methods....rigging the polls in different ways.....hoping the trend would reverse.  By this point, they can't really continue this game and have to report the truth.

Second, the polling folks have rigged up Trump to be ahead.....to force Hillary to go and beg for more money and thus spend more on advertising and polling.....so the guys in the middle get more cash.

I'm likely to believe both stories.

If Trump maintains a seven-point lead up to the debates?  That's a curious thing.  Hillary is a lousy debate person and Trump is slightly above average....prepared at a moment's notice to stand and argue on something.  It's very likely that Trump would gain two or three points more after the debates.  So we could be talking about a lead that Hillary could never overcome....existing by mid-October.

This week, I noted that Trump is already putting more emphasis in swing states.  This will force Hillary to react and have to find the funds to go at least two months early into those states with major funding.

Beginning of the end?  By late August.....I think if Trump is still seven points ahead.....it's mostly done.