In reality....even you conduct a hundred polls that say Hillary has fifty-plus percent of the national numbers in her pocket....even if half are fifty-five-plus percent....what matters in the end is enthusiasm of those voters to show up and actually vote.
In 1976, Jimmy Carter won an amazing election, with roughly 40.8-million people (50.1-percent) voting for him. State-wise, there are at least six states that he just barely won the election with 51 or 52 percent of the vote. A couple of thousand votes switching here and there, or people not showing up to vote.....and Jimmy Carter would have lost the election. He needed enthusiastic voters showing up.
To be honest in the summer of 1976, the Republicans were mostly divided. Ford was running against Ronald Reagan, and nothing was decided until they got to the convention. After the convention, what you can say from events occurring....is that Ford just didn't have enthusiasm cooking for him. His speeches, his energy....gave zero push.
So, what happened in 1980, after four years of Carter achievements? Almost 44 million people showed up and voted for Ronald Reagan. That's five million more voters than Ford had.
Why? Enthusiasm, along with the Iran hostage crisis. Had Carter solved the crisis long before the election...it would have helped. But when you examine state by state voting.....all of those close elections in 1976....are wiped out. Carter has those voters either vote across the aisle for Reagan or his people stay home.
Enthusiasm is what carries an election to a successful conclusion.
So, I look at pictures from 2015 and the primary run....where Hillary's people rented an arena or hall, with expected capacity of 2,000 to 4,000 people.....with some really fine pictures which seem to show full capacity, and then some journalists show a picture from a different angle, and you realize that barely 500-to-700 people showed up (the hall isn't even half-full). Last fall, I can remember seeing at least a dozen of such pictures.
This spring came.....same repeat....you'd have some journalists showing full capacity.....then you'd have the actual distant photo taken.....showing maybe a half-full audience..
Trump? He rents a 5,000-person arena.....and has a overflow crowd. Over and over, this occurs. Those people are enthusiastic and show up. Those are the same people who will show up on right day to vote.
This 2016 is a weird election, and polls going all over the place. Frankly, I don't think the polls matter as much.....as the ability to fill arenas......day after day, after day.
Oh, I think Trump does lack a lot of skills.....he will produce tons of executive orders to challenge Congress and the Senate.....and he'll frustrate intellectuals because of his view of a changed world not matching their own view. But the question is.....will enthusiasm carry voters to the station and actually vote more than Hillary, and the answer is yes.
Go look at both 2008 and 2012.....President Obama knew how to create enthusiasm.....McCain and Romney did not. What happened to Hillary in the 2008 primary? With tons of money and a full year of effort....she could not create enthusiasm in Iowa. Much of the effort of her team and their failure that year.....centers on the lack of enthusiasm.
So settle back for the final three months and ask yourself.....where is the enthusiasm?