Wednesday, 12 October 2016

How Trump Reached This Stage

One could probably write a 1,000-page book on how Trump got to this stage today, but I will simplify it to a degree and list the five obvious things that I see.

1.  For decades, politics has been behaving more or less like some reality show.....whether we grasp it or not.  Over the past eight years with President Obama appearing almost every four weeks on some comedy show.....the behavior and public act was noticeable by the public.  Bush to a degree....perhaps less than Obama.....did the same thing.

Trump woke up and figured the whole script and production angle out.  It was straight out of regular reality shows already being produced.  All he had to do was get the right production team around him....stage the fake speeches and threats....and treat all of this political stuff as fake.  The public bought into it one-hundred-percent.

2.  Treat everyone to a WWE-wrestling-type act.  All of the fake stuff from the Republicans and Democrats over the past eight years?  It was all soap-opera stuff or WWE-wrestling scripts.  Trump figured that out.

3.  It doesn't take a rocket-scientist to be President.  If you look at the talents of Bush and Obama, with their resumes in front of you prior to assuming the office....neither were exactly rocket-scientist material.  The public accepted that and Trump blazed away with his regular skills.  Presently, I think a barber or transmission mechanic could probably accomplish as much as Bush or Obama.....so why not Trump?

4.  Trump settled his speeches and talks into regular understandable terms.  He's like the neighbor next door.....or like in Tim Allen's Home Improvement character....Wilson.  Wilson knows everything but only in small doses that are understandable.  Wilson is friendly.  Wilson wants to be a good neighbor.  Wilson never intimidates people.  Wilson can offer simple advice that doesn't take more than two minutes to lay out.  Trump is....Wilson.

5.  Finally, Trump is a New Yorker.  New Yorkers are different from normal people.  They want to tell you something....without a lot of $100 words, or science-gimmicks, or fake opera stories.  New Yorkers are blunt....but if you got into a serious problem....they'd bend over backwards to fix your issue.  In a sense, we haven't had a New Yorker since Teddy Roosevelt.  

The End of the Line for Four

About ten days ago....down in Sylacauga, Alabama.....some high school kid made a social media comment in support of the cops and Cops-Lives-Matter.  At some street-side junction....four punks came up and beat the crap out of the high school kid for the comment.  The beating?  A pretty harsh matter and the kid will likely spend a month in some rehab unit.

An investigation occurred and charges came out.  The four punks?  All young black men who were in some situation in a college (different colleges).

The likely charge?  If no baseball bats or batons were used....it'll be second-degree assault.  If bats or batons were used?  First degree assault.

In Alabama.....first degree assault goes from two years to twenty years.   Second-degree assault?  From one year to ten years.

The odds in this case?  The prosecutor will probably meet with each of the four and their lawyers and give one an opportunity to rat on the remaining three.  This kid will be offered some kind of deal to admit things in court and the chief kid who did the damage or triggered the meeting to occur....will be the first one to face a court episode.

My humble guess is that one of the four will have get a major prosecution and face a minimum of ten years in prison.  Two of them might luck out and just get two to four years.  And the fourth guy who pointed out everything will walk away with six months of prison for a lesser charge.

All of this equals a pretty stupid amount of behavior by the four young men and will change their lives forever.  If the injured kid suffers brain-damage?  I'm still waiting for comments about permanent damage.  In this case.....the hurt kid will sue the heck out of these four punks later....to get more or less nothing.

Their college years are finished.  At best, the kid with little jail time might be able to return to some form of a life and move on.  The kid who gets the ten-plus years?  He's finished and will just end up as car-wash guy or janitor at some hospital.  It's a pretty screwed up deal, and you just wander where their minds were that afternoon and why they had to beat the crap out of this high school kid.

Paul Ryan, the Opportunist?

My scenario on Paul Ryan:

- He expects Trump to lose, or in better terms.....he wants Trump to lose.  Thus, Hillary will win.

- He knows Hillary is seriously ill and has various health conditions.  He expects Hillary to be a marginal President over the next four years.....with few trips outside of the country, and mostly situated within the White House.

- Ryan has various fake confrontations planned out against the Hillary administration, to keep himself in the spotlight.

- In 2020, Ryan would emerge as the chief Republican to win the primary, and an extremely weak and unhealthy Hillary would run against him....with Ryan winning the 2020 election.

If Trump wins?  Trump might be around to 2024.....a Democrat would probably win that election and the next real chance that Ryan has is in 2032....a LONG time away.

Yes, this is the only way that Ryan can reach the Presidency....it's now, and Trump must lose.

The relationship between a President Trump and Speaker Ryan?  Zero.  I think Ryan has burned enough bridges and dismayed Trump's team enough.....that they will consider him an outsider.  Ryan might survive through 2017, but I'd expect challenges to his authority by various Republicans to occur.