Thursday, 22 December 2016

A Trend Story

Back in the 1960s in West Germany.....the politicians woke up one day and realized that the birthrate was changing.....going to less than 2 kids per couple.  By the mid-1970s....various incentives were being thrown at Germans in hopes changing the direction.  All of these failed.  Today?  The birthrate in a combined Germany if bouncing between 1.4 and 1.5 kids per couple.  It's not enough to sustain the county.  So....no matter which study you look at....by 2035 (twenty years down the line)....the current 82-million German population will shrink to between 65 and 70 million (depending on which study you read).  That's a minimum of twelve million Germans who won't be there to finance the pension program, help industry produce BMWs, or grow crops.

I sat and looked at in-depth article by the LA Times.  The topic?  California has been noted in 2016....finally having shown a similar trend.....decreasing population via the birth rate.  Oh, they can show people moving there, and Latinos arriving from El Salvador, Honduras, and Mexico.  But in terms of births?  No....there's a statistic there to make you wonder.

Why the drop?  It's basically three reasons (at least the experts say this).

1.  These teen pregnancy efforts?  Finally paying off.....teens are getting birth control and it's effective in lessening this issue.

2.  Kids are going onto community college and university.....delaying relationships, marriage, and thus getting serious about kids at a later age.

3.  Young women opt for careers....over having kids.  Maybe they will have one single kid between 35 and 40.....to fulfill some goal.

What happens right now?  Nothing.  No one is saying its serious.  But you look at West Germany and this decade where they saw things happening and did nothing.  Eventually, they reached the stage of offering tax credits or incentives, and by then.....it didn't matter.

My humble guess is that around 2025....a major study will state the obvious....California has reached maximum population.  By 2030, the downward trend in population will be noted.  Some time after 2035, it'll turn into a problem where certain towns in California can only retain their population if immigrants arrive and stay.