If you compare Mexico of 1975 and Mexico of 2017, you see two entirely different countries. Economically, the Mexico of 2017 has benefited greatly and there's actually a middle-class....compliments of the trade agreement with the US.
This whole argument with Trump? I think if I were the President of Mexico....I'd think what will happen in Mexico over the next three years.
That wall will be built and it will be somewhat effective. Maybe folks will drift over to boats and try to make their way to San Diego or Texas via rafts....like they do in Turkey and heading to Greece.
The 20-percent tariff? It will occur and make Mexican products more expensive. Less sales....less profits....less taxation....less employment.
It would be obviously smart to have some meeting and work out some simplified tax deal, where Mexico shifted $300 to $400 million a year to the US, and quietly paid for the wall.
Don't worry....the political folks in Mexico City aren't that smart. So, in the end....they will destroy a 10-billion-dollar industrial base and revert Mexico back to the Mexico of 1975. It's that simple.
If I were looking at this....I'd go and buy myself 10,000 rubber rafts from China and prepare to sell them to folks to cross over the sea into the US.....maybe at $50,000 a rubber raft (for 12 people).