Monday, 9 January 2017

The Coming Weeks

For the last hundred years or so, whenever recessions or depressions came upon America....one particular region of the US was set to skate by and not be affected....Washington D.C.

In the coming weeks, there's going to be this uneasy feeling among government workers because there's a hint of layoffs coming. In some agencies....less so (Pentagon)....and in some, more so (EPA).
The way this will work is that some meeting with a agency or department will occur with the VIP-staff of the group.  They will be told that by mid-summer or late-summer, they need to trim X-number of employees off the staff.  In the past, it'd be a one-percent or two-percent game, and you'd just invent some gimmicks to facilitate the decrease.  You'd note people leaving and just not fill their slots for six months, or you'd look at retirees coming up and leave the slot empty.

In this case, because of the numbers involved....some will be facing some harsh realities.

If you live within the beltway, and in the GS-13 to GS-15 level....or some VIP-manager....then you likely owned a $500,000 or more house, in Virginia, Maryland, or DC.  Some folks are sitting there and making $120,000 a year from their job, and paying out $20,000 in mortgage payments, and own two relatively new cars which add another $1,000 a month onto their bills.  These folks are sitting there currently with an enormous amount of pressure on them.  If these job-cuts come....there won't be another job in sixty days that they can roll into.  They have to go to plan-A real quick....put the house up for sale.....and go find a job back in the rurals of America with some company, college, or foundation.

Home prices in the Virginia region suddenly dropping?  I'd take a guess by October....houses which were valued at $600,000 suddenly priced at $525,000 and folks trying to get ahead of the curve because by summer of 2018.....the same house might be at $450,000.

Kids who were in some $60,000 a year private university getting an urgent call from Mom that the 'cash-cow' is dead, and they better start planning on year three and four of college at some $20,000-a-year college.

Guys close to sixty?  They will go for early retirement and walk out the door.

Folks with anxiety and panic attacks?  Well....it's called a dose of reality.  They assumed their life-long job with the government would continue, and that probably won't happen.  So don't be shocked when you find some new guy delivering your mail, and you discover he was a big-wig with EPA six months ago, and he can't find a job today.....so the mail route is the only option left for him.

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