Wednesday, 1 February 2017

2018 Mid-Term

If you pay attention over the next 15-odd months, there is a political theme help some Democratic Senators who live in blue-states-for-Trump survive.  The list?

Florida: Bill Nelson
Indiana: Joe Donnelly
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow
Missouri: Clair McCaskill
Montanta: Joe Tester
New Jersey: Bob Menendez
North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp
Ohio: Sherrod Brown
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin
West Virgina: Joe Manchin

The rest of the races?  Mostly all considered 'safe' or in Hillary-states.  There are two Republicans talked about as weak....but only one (Dean Heller of Nevada) is in a blue-state/Hillary-state.  That one Republican seat might flip.  Note as well....Hatch of Utah will be forced into another run.  But I seriously doubt that he stays....retiring instead.

Here's the thing.  Eleven Senate seats are in a fair amount of risk.  Just losing five of these would be a big deal, giving a net-gain of four for the Republicans and giving them roughly 56 seats.  If they go and win nine of the eleven (entirely possible at this point), that would put them at 60 seats.  That creates a two-year period for President Trump to push through various pieces of legislation with only McCain and Graham to stall things.

When you sit and watch these 60 Minutes Oprah pieces....note the background, landscape, or positive story theme, and what state is featured.  It'll likely be one of these eleven states.

When you sit and watch CNN do some positive slant over the heartland, look at the landscape and state used.  It'll likely be one of these eleven states.

On top of this, you have Feinstein of California who will probably retire, and this would normally bring up some heavy competition.  Bernie?  Yeah, he's up again, but advancing on he might step down at this point.

Settle back and be entertained for the next eighteen months.

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