If you sit and think about the Trump reform on taxes....there are two waves that will occur.
The first wave will start in January, as small, medium and big business operations start to feel some enthusiasm and look at improving their technology, their work-place, or bulk up on employees). All of this will add onto the GDP statistics, and create a wave that will last all throughout 2018.
GDP-wise, you ought to be thinking of a 4-to-4.5 percent GDP by the end of 2018. Right now, for 2017....we probably are talking about a 3.2-percent GDP, which compared against the 2000-to-today numbers.....is FANTASTIC. If you were comparing against 1980 to 2000 numbers....it's AVERAGE.
The second wave? That starts in March to July of 2019, when private folks add the numbers up and realize that they are getting an extra $500 to $10,000 back.
A married guy, with one kid, and a wife....making $50,000 a year....you'd be paying $739 for the whole year on taxes.
Same scenario, with no kid....$50,000 salary? You'd be paying $2,739.
Same scenario, with no wife or kid....$50,000 salary? You'd pay $4,370.
So you start to think about these guys and families in the spring of 2019. A check for $3,000 as the refund, instead of the $1,200 you were expecting? The automatic reaction by ninety-percent of people.....spend it.
This wave will start up across the US with people walking in and discussing a new car.....a renovation project....a new riding lawn mower.....a pool table for the basement lounge....a vacation to Aruba....or perhaps a boob-job for the wife.
By the fall of 2020? That's the curious thing. You get into November of the next election period, and see three-million jobs created across the US, and a heck of a lot of enthusiasm for the nation. Your cousin....the worthless idiot with the degree? He might actually be working finally, and paying taxes. Your wife who kept hoping for a 2nd shift at the local plant to hire up forty more employees? She might get hired on. Your son might be finally hired-up and working for $15-an-hour.
For this long two-decade period....we were kinda sitting on marginal enthusiasm and just not getting much in return. Now? Things are worth discussing and having higher hopes.