Wednesday, 1 February 2017

That Budweiser Commercial

My brother sent me the link to the new Budweiser commercial for the Super Bowl.....more or less a catchy historical piece on Mr Adolphus Busch and him being an immigrant.

So I watched it.   Yeah, I got kinda emotional over it.  There are five observations.

1. First, it's a shock....he actually came to the front door of America (Ellis Island) and did the paperwork and health-check.....passed, and entered America.  No false name.  No fake ID.  No Jihad stuff.  Just plain Adolphus Busch.  You should note, this was 1857....only three years prior to the Civil War.  I should also note you didn't have stupid State Department idiots running much of anything.

2.  There's never a single minute that you can attribute his life to social benefits or some government hand-out program, period.  In fact, he's a local kid from here in the area I live....of Kastel.  He was the 21st kid of a twenty-two kid family.  In simple terms, while the family did well in wine....he was set to get virtually nothing of the business because he had 20 kids ahead of him.  He came with three older brothers, who were also in the same situation....nothing to gain by staying in Kastel.  I should note, Kastel sits upon the Rhine and is five minutes walking over the bridge to Mainz.

3.  The beer thing?  Well....they skipped a large of this story.  Most Americans didn't drink beer.  Most Irish didn't drink beer.  Most Chinese didn't drink beer.  Most Amish.....well....they didn't drink period.  So it's a virtually small and limited audience....Germans.  He has to go, where Germans exist in America.  And they are his only customer.  You might also want to note that roughly a decade later when "junior" went back to Germany as a fairly big success in the brewery business....his dad (ever the wine connoisseur) advised him that beer was not the business to put your heart into.

4.  This slam about ten seconds into the commercial about foreigners?  Well...EVERYONE, to include the Indians as well....are migrants or immigrants into America.  Maybe there is some slam against particular nationalities, but go and look for any country in Europe that was having success mixing twenty different cultural groups into one single society.  The Ukraine, to some minor degree might be mentioned....but no country in Europe, or for that matter throughout the rest of the world....ever blended such a group into one single focus group.

5.  Finally, I come to this odd aspect of the video and what I see.  Germans rarely ever fail at something that they put their heart and soul into.  To their credit....they will MAKE something work, one way or another.  This is part of Adolphus Busch's success.  He looked at the saloon trade, beer gardens, and found various ways to make this attractive to non-Germans.  He built the business into what it is today.

I should note that roughly 25 years after Busch entered the US.....a 16-year-old German kid (underage noted here) entered through the same port (Ellis Island)....gave them his true name (no fake ID), and was approved for entry.  Again, that kid didn't ask for much....or get any hand-out.  The kid did well and also had some remarkable success....trying to come back in 1904 with his success into the Pfalz region of Germany.  The Prussians didn't take this well, and told the young man to leave.  And so, Frederick Trump returned to America.  Fourteen years later (1918), he got sick and died.  His widow, the Scot, handled things well, and eventually handed things down to her grandson Donald.

From what I hear, Donald has done well.  Frederick probably would have told him to skip all this government bureaucratic stuff, and just stick with hotels.

The "This is Who" Moment

I noted in the news this morning....roughly 900 State Department folks signed up some deal to say "This is not who we are" toward the Trump Administration and this ban on six countries for 90 days that came out of the weekend.

They wanted to send a message.

I sat for a while and pondered over this.

Allow me to tell you....(the brilliant individuals signing this counter statement to the Administration)....who you are.

When President Obama noted last year that there were six countries from which our visa and Green Card program was screwed up over.....that was your moment of reality.

Ask yourself.....who runs the visa program?  Oh, yeah....the State Department.

Ask yourself....who runs the Green Card program?  Oh, yeah....the State Department.

It's you guys.

For the last thirty to forty years, with all the marginal effort and poor management....you made the visa and Green Card program into a joke.  Oh, you had help....President Clinton, President Bush, and President Obama.  You had idiots from foundations and terror groups who also helped.  You had Senators who helped. Even Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation helped.

Here's the curious thing....now that you made this stupid statement "this is not who we are"....the administration wants this fixed.  So they will be handing you (the State Department) some guidelines and expectations for change (probably within the next week).

I know how clever and stupid that you can be, and I'm already betting that you will just say "no", and refuse to solve this problem or implement the changes necessary.  That's ok.  The boss will document this, and in roughly three months....as the ban gets lifted and no fixes are in place.....we move to the next stage.

My humble guess is that you've got maybe three months of employment left at this point.  At that point, I expect around a thousand folks to get a notice of termination.  Even if you survive that list....there's probably a second list with another thousand by the end of 2017.

Here's the neat thing for you State Department folks.....as you get let go, there is this freeze across the rest of the government.  So, in the past, you'd just go to the CIA or maybe some Archives job for six to twelve months.....to get a chance to come back.  Well....they won't be offering jobs during the freeze.

Plan B?  Maybe across DC, with NPR, the foundations and the university crowd....there might be 300 jobs for you.  But remember....lots of other government agencies will also be letting folks go, so you got competition.

Plan C?  You could go and apply across the nation to major colleges and hope someone will let you instruct for a year or two....waiting out the moment when Trump gets impeached.  Course, maybe he makes it through 2020, and gets re-elected.....can the university hold you until 2024?

Here's the reality of plan D.  You might want to prepare for a job with some high school in Texas or Oklahoma.

Mad?  Angry?  Whining to your folks or relatives about this?  Some might come back to you and ask why didn't fix the Green Card program?  Or why didn't you fix the visa-program?

Those intellectual friends from Paris, Berlin and London?  Oh, they will call you up and tell you to stay strong and anti-Trump.  You will eventually ask.....isn't your visa-program screwed-up in France? Oh yes, but we are 'safe'....they won't fire us.  Then you ask your German associate in Berlin.....don't you have 500,000 failed visa-applicants in Germany?  Oh yes, but we are 'safe'....they won't fire us.  Eventually, you will realize that they really don't know who they are.....they are just as naive as you.

You'd best open up some bottle of Jack Daniels and prepare yourself for a dose of reality.  This is where you really learn who you are, and how you got to where you stand.

The Wives Story

I noted in the news today that some guy who was 93 years old in Nigeria had passed away.  His significance to get mentioned?  He was a Muslim cleric guy, with 130 wives.

Yeah....130 spouses.

I have my doubts that he could easily remember the names of all 130 women, but maybe that's not such a big deal in Nigeria. Maybe you could utter 'darling' a fair bit and just sneak by on remembering everyone's face and name.

Creating a problem for the other guys?  Well...that's the thing about a society which has usually a 50-50 birthrate.  It generally means that he was hurting the chances of 129 other guys in the country.

I'm one of those folks who often sit through a Mormon story of multiple wives and will listen to the whole theme and landscape described.  I might be able to see some reason or logic with maybe two wives....beyond that, I think a guy is treading on shaky ground.  Too much jealousy....too much greed....too many fights over nothing, it's just not worth the hassle to bulk up on wives.

Folks in Nigeria note that this guy leaves roughly 200 wives and kids now.  Hard to say what happens, or if some other guy will come up to take some of the widows.

Maybe some guy will write up a movie script over this and make a Hollywood production of the guy.  My title for it?  One is Never Enough.

2018 Mid-Term

If you pay attention over the next 15-odd months, there is a political theme underway....to help some Democratic Senators who live in blue-states-for-Trump survive.  The list?

Florida: Bill Nelson
Indiana: Joe Donnelly
Michigan: Debbie Stabenow
Missouri: Clair McCaskill
Montanta: Joe Tester
New Jersey: Bob Menendez
North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp
Ohio: Sherrod Brown
Pennsylvania: Bob Casey
Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin
West Virgina: Joe Manchin

The rest of the races?  Mostly all considered 'safe' or in Hillary-states.  There are two Republicans talked about as weak....but only one (Dean Heller of Nevada) is in a blue-state/Hillary-state.  That one Republican seat might flip.  Note as well....Hatch of Utah will be forced into another run.  But I seriously doubt that he stays....retiring instead.

Here's the thing.  Eleven Senate seats are in a fair amount of risk.  Just losing five of these would be a big deal, giving a net-gain of four for the Republicans and giving them roughly 56 seats.  If they go and win nine of the eleven (entirely possible at this point), that would put them at 60 seats.  That creates a two-year period for President Trump to push through various pieces of legislation with only McCain and Graham to stall things.

When you sit and watch these 60 Minutes Oprah pieces....note the background, landscape, or positive story theme, and what state is featured.  It'll likely be one of these eleven states.

When you sit and watch CNN do some positive slant over the heartland, look at the landscape and state used.  It'll likely be one of these eleven states.

On top of this, you have Feinstein of California who will probably retire, and this would normally bring up some heavy competition.  Bernie?  Yeah, he's up again, but advancing on age.....so he might step down at this point.

Settle back and be entertained for the next eighteen months.