Thursday, 16 February 2017

My Perception of 2020

While most folks are hyped up and think that President Trump will run again in 2020....I have my doubts.  I think a massive number of changes will occur over the next four years, and Trump will ask himself what is left to change, and find very little.  At that point, he will have to ask himself why run?

There is a schedule to this business.  By the summer of 2019....decisions have to be made as folks prepare for the parmary period in January of 2020.  So we are roughly 27 months away from this decision point.

The likely Democrats in 2020?  Some say Hillary will run again.  I have my doubts over her health, and would suggest she won't run.

I would put Senator Warren on the list, but I just don't see much enthusiasm for her in the south or mid-west. At best, she might be able to take four states in the primary.

Senator Book from NJ?  Same story....he might have some support in the northeast, but from the rest of the nation?  No.  Another four-state winner perhaps.

Senator Gillabrand from NY?  She would project a centralist-type Democrat but she carries little if any enthusiasm. She is a two-state winner at best.

Governor Tim Kaine from Virginia?  He give decent speeches, and has a fair amount of lobby-support.  Out of the entire group.....I'd say he might be in a better position than most.

For the Republicans?  Would we have 16 people again in the primary?  Probably so.

My top three GOP suggestions would be (1) Ted Cruz, (2) Nikki Haley, and (3) VP Pence.

Pence probably holds a slight lead over everyone.    

Maybe I'm wrong on this, but I think a significant amount of change is going to occur between now and 2020.  For the Democrats, their rallying call to undo all the change will be questioned by the public, and probably bring them more negative focus.  The news media?  They've got themselves into a difficult position....carrying a mostly daily list of negative news isn't winning back viewers.