Thursday, 18 May 2017

The 2018 and 2020 US Election: The Rest of the Story

Over the past month, there's various cards being laid upon the table and you can reasonably lay out the strategy for the November 2018 mid-term election and the 435 seats.

The Democratic strategy from this point on....is figure out the twenty-five weakest GOP members in urbanized areas.  The chief topic in this areas for the next 18 months will be the coming Trump 'impeachment'.  You need a simple majority of House members to send the papers onto the Senate.  Right now, with the GOP membership....there's a zero chance of this happening.

So you can imagine this continual chit-chat....on and on....trying to interest a majority of what would be independent voters to agree on some Trump impeachment being necessary.  The odds?  You might be able to win ten to fifteen seats....not enough to change the outcome.

The real worry of the Democrats for 2018?  It's an odd race for the Senate.  Out of 33 seats up for grabs....ONLY 8 belong to the GOP.  For the Democrats?  It's 23 seats.  The odds of five to eight seats flipping to the GOP?  It's a 50-50 shot.  I'm betting on six seats going to the GOP, and only two losses for the current GOP.  That is a four-net situation.

The 2020 election?  This becomes more interesting.

There are a lot of signals that Bernie Sanders isn't finished yet.  There are signals that Hillary Clinton is not to be written off.  For a lot of the Democratic crowd who are ready for a bold new leadership scheme....this puts the bulk of them into a difficult situation.

No one can be sure of Trump's desire to run in 2020, or just step back.  If he announces by summer of 2019 that he won't run....then this entire impeachment gimmick of the Democratic Party is screwed up and doesn't help their agenda.

If I were the leadership of the Democratic Party....I'd start to look at the strategy of the past two decades and decide to revamp the whole game.  It's time to play in the rural communities and talk heart-land politics.  But if Hillary and Bernie are part of 2020....well....just get ready for some crazy election to occur, and the next Trump-character to arrive on the scene.

I read this week that the "Rock" (Dwayne Johnson) suggested he might run.  If you go down the states that Trump won....I think the Rock could take each one of those.  For the Democrats?  They might have to break out some other fake Democratic character, and run a Trump-like campaign.