Sunday, 29 April 2018

Trump: 2020

No one can say if Donald Trump will run a second time in 2020, or not.  What can be generally said is that the Democrats are obsessed with getting to November of 2018, and having some kind of 'path' toward impeachment as their solution.  Why?  My gut feeling is that they really don't want to reach November of 2020....with Eric Garcetti (mayor of LA, Democrat) as their chief competitor against Trump.  They need Pence as the opponent, to give Garcetti an opportunity to win.

So I will make four observations about Trump in 2020:

1.  The news media has a problem in that more than two-thirds of the general public....don't respect the media anymore.  It's the same problem with the Washington Post, NY Times, PBS, and the various cable news networks.  In the past, the media could carry a candidate all the way.....I don't think that magic formula exists anymore.

2.  The affect of pro-Trump blacks?  Well....in 2016, roughly 12-percent of blacks voted for Trump.  Several high-profile blacks have come out and talked pro-Trump situations.  Jobs for blacks over the past year have increased.  It wouldn't surprise me Trump increased the black vote up to 20 percent.

3.  If there is no massive Democratic vote trend in 2018's House election....then the hype is mostly all fake, and there's little chance of Garcetti getting a fighting chance for 2020.

4.  Finally, the money problem of the DNC (the Democratic National Committee).  It does exist.  It's a serious problem for helping the 2018 House crowd.  And the funds might prove to be their weakest link right now.

If Trump were to win....I'd go to the thirty states of 2016, and expect all of them to likely repeat.  Garcetti might be a better candidate than Hillary, but the general public has hit some point of being demoralized over the loss, with the country moving forward.  Lets face it....the economics didn't go south like the news media talked about in the spring of 2017.  There's talk of North Korea finally reaching some peace stage.  And the ISIS war in Syria has more or less concluded (with or without Trump's fingerprints on the mess). 

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