Tuesday, 19 February 2019

Bernie, 2020

Done.  As of today, Bernie is in the 2020 race.

What does it mean? I will offer six observations:

1.  From the nationwide list of sixty-odd million potential Democratic voters...at least 25-million would be hardcore Bernie supporters.  It differs state to state though.  In Alabama, Bernie pulled 76,000 in the primary of 2016, with Hillary pulling a 4-to-1 lead over him. 

2. Primary-wise, With the exception of South Carolina....Bernie, I think, can win three of the first four primary states...which gives him a dramatic lead in the first round of the primary season.

3.  With Bernie there, it's basically a capitalist versus socialist election, and a quarter of the typical Democratic base will be angry and frustrated about this dividing line.  I hate to suggest it, but some of those people will go and vote Green Party.

4.  Bernie will be 78 years old in the fall of this year.....meaning for November of 2020....he'll be 79 years old.  It's hard to say this is a positive.

5.  If I were Hillary Clinton.....I'd look at the situation, and go right back out in 2020, to run against Bernie....with a 50-percent budget compared to 2016, and run mostly on social media and journalists helping me.  It's crazy, but she knows she can beat Bernie in the primary. 

6.  All of this will give the insiders to the national Democratic Party a headache, because they see it as being an open door for Trump to easily win.  Why spend big money on Bernie? 

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