Saturday, 28 September 2019

What You Ought to Know About the Senate in an Impeachment

There's not a lot of rules on the handling of an impeachment once the House hands the paperwork/charges over to the Senate, but you might want to brush up on how this episode will go.

The head of impeachment (the judge) is the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court (Roberts).  During this 10-to-30 day period....there's probably not going to be any business conducted at the Supreme Court (shocker?).  If Roberts disallows anything....where it goes?  That's not entirely clear....it could go to the Supreme Court, but with only individuals to decide upon it....it'd be split.

The House will designate members to be a prosecution-team and present the case.

The President, or his lawyers, and Senate members can present opposing evidence, and pose questions upon the prosecution-team.

Will the prosecution-team be made of House members?  The law doesn't say it has to be that way, and there's some suggestion that it may be non-House members in this case (professional lawyers).

Conviction?  You need a supermajority.....two-thirds of the Senate.  67 Senators.

Odds of getting 67?  There are 45 Democrats and 2 independents.  From the two independents, one is Angus King (professional lawyer) who has leaned on occasion to the right.  So you might be able to count 46 guaranteed votes, and you'd need 21 Republicans to slide over.  It's anyone's guess but I would imagine five will flip, and those five are probably going receive enough heat that their Republican membership might be finished at the end.

Could the President's 'team' take up three weeks to counter the charges?  That's a real possibility.  You can figure with the opening day, and the prosecution summary....around eight to twelve work-days will be wasted.

The wild-card in this Senate meeting?  I would suggest three characters to watch: Graham, Ted Cruz and Mike Lee.....all lawyers.  I expect all three to be correcting Roberts on a daily basis, and make his job miserable.

Handing this over to the Senate in late October, and running it to Thanksgiving week, and then starting back up the week after?  Well, that's the significant problem in this timing.  It would have been smarter to start this in mid-January.

The odds that the President might be in non-Americans and present a broader case against former VP Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, and members of the Obama White House?  There's nothing hindering that and making this into a massive-firing line.  The Ukrainian former AG giving testimony?  Yes.  Money-laundering experts talking about how Hunter Biden did his business?  Possibility.  You might even have foreign operatives come in and lay out their relationships with the DNC in 2016.   In terms of messy politics, this would dissolve a lot of trust in the current system.

So Trump wins?  More than likely.

The losers?  CNN will broadcast this live, and probably carry three hours prior to each day with hype, and conclude the day with another three hours of hype.  Most viewers will be burned out after a week of this.

Joe Biden?  I don't see him being active much after this event.

Hunter Biden?  It's hard to see him avoiding some legal challenge to drag him back to the Ukraine to face charges.

Voter frustration?  That's really the central theme to this.....no one will be happy over politics in general, for the next ten years.

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