Nine Weeks Until The Election

My ten observations:

1.  There is NO blue wave coming.  At best, I would suggest that three GOP House seats and one Senate seat are taken by the Democrats.  But I would go and suggest at least one Democratic House seat to be taken, and maybe five Democratic Senate seats to be taken by the Republicans.

2.  McCain will pass from this Earth within the next four weeks.  The AZ governor, I suspect, will select himself to be the replacement.  I know some folks are thinking McCain's wife will be picked, but I just don't see that happening.

3. I think the two big shocks will be: Missouri's McCaskill and Michigan's Stabenow.  Both will be edged out. No one would have predicted that two years ago.

4.   CNN and MSNBC will be sitting there on 7 November, and trying to explain how the GOP won the seats (potentially in the Senate, there might be ten Democratic seats won).

5.  A Democratic meeting will be held in the month after the election, and the realization that they've expended a tremendous amount of 'talk' and gotten nowhere.

6.  Black votes will matter in this election, and a shift of 25-percent of the votes will go to the GOP.  In some states, it won't matter.  In states like Missouri and Michigan....it'll matter.

7.  If the Republicans are in the 60-range of Senate seats in January, you can anticipate a long list of things to be laid out for goals in 2019.

8.  Where are the Russians?  Where is the meddling?

9.  The 2020 effect?  It's a race in the Senate with most of the races being Republican-held seats.  The odds are heavily in favor of them holding those seats, and even competing heavily in seven-plus races where the Democrats hold the Senate seats.  Doug Jones in Alabama, is likely to face a real candidate, and he can't show much on accomplishments to retain the seat.

10.  The Democrats need a total rebuild, and I doubt if they have the bold leadership to accomplish that.