South Africa: 2038

I've been back from this South Africa travel episode now....for ten days.  It was my first, and likely last trip to the region, but it dwells heavily upon my mind.....so I sat and pondered the past couple of days. This is an essay of where I see South Africa in twenty years.

1.  I don't see it surviving as one single united nation.  Between the political climate, the government acquisition of farmlands likely to occur, and massive unemployment....there's very little to keep the country united.  My humble guess is that five to eight states will come out of this revolutionary period, with the Western Cape likely to be the largest 'piece'.

2.  There's little to nothing to hold young blacks to the region, and no hope for jobs.  I think at least three to five million over this twenty-year period will simply up and leave....either for the US or Europe.

3.  Drug trafficking will simply continue and escalate, with a drug-war likely to occur among gangs in Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Duban.  Township police protection will be demanded....and ultimately fail.

4.  Bank failures or banking corruption practices will become a monthly topic, with trust dwindling for most folks in South Africa.  While people need a banking vehicle to exist....it won't work if half the nation distrusts the majority of banks.

5.  Drought and lack of water will remain a topic on the Western Cape for the next two decades.  The amusing thing here....if you had some real leaders....real capital investment, you'd have a dozen reservoirs existing, and a massive amount of water for irrigation projects, and make half of the Cape an agricultural paradise, with fresh fruit and vegetables available for the locals and to sell. 

6.  Finally, social media is likely providing a vehicle which will be the downfall of the ANC (the African National Congress Party), where their shortfalls and 10,000 promises will finally be open to public scrutiny.  But here's the thing....once they splinter up and dissolve, you will end up with numerous parties and agendas which will make stability impossible to attain.