It's a silly essay but over the past twelve months, there's so much theatrical business in DC, and with both parties....that in some ways....it's pretty much guaranteed that Trump would win a second time. So these are my scenarios:
1. Biden and Bernie are edged out or just refuse run, with Senator Harris the likely contender for the Democratic Party. Her numbers in Trump-win states in 2016 (30 states)? She might pull more votes than Hillary in the popular vote, but I don't see any of the 30 Trump-win states going her way. With Biden or Bernie, I would suggest three to four of the Trump-win states being possible to win.
2. Howard Schultz of Starbucks fame.....runs as a third-party guy....taking around sixteen-million votes and two states in the Electoral College. Unfortunately, the major (probably 90-percent) of his votes would come from the Democratic Party.
3. The Democratic Party fails to dislodge or impeach President Trump. If you reach January of 2020, and nothing has happened, or it's been a utter failure.....then the negativity falls upon the hype.
4. The Russians help Trump again. As comical as it sounds....if some comedian were to put on a Russian mafia suit, or 1960s military uniform with 88 medals.....doing a daily two-minute presentation of Democratic screw-up's, and how Putin's personal plan is at work to take the Democrats down again.....people would start laughing and label his comments as believable, with Facebook forced to review comical relief as political fake news. College kids would be putting on Russian uniforms and pretending that it's all one big act.
5. If the black unemployment rate were to 5.5 percent or less? Yeah, it'd be a serious issue for the Democrats to argue about.
6. If Latinos start to agree with Trump. Trump took around 28-percent of Latino vote in 2016. If he were to carry weight, and somehow reach 40-percent? Trump wins against all possibilities.
7. Finally, there is a fair possibility that Pence will be offered the Secretary of State job, with some new character (possibly a female) stepping in as the VP candidate. Depending on who it is and their campaign stamina.....it's possible that 'edge' would be enough.
The comical side of this 2020 discussion is that so far....the Russian collusion stuff has been 'Harry Potter' type material.....good on hype but little in terms of facts. Yet if nothing occurs to prove collusion.....everyone will be laughing at fake Russian collusion in 2020.
Course, the other side of this is that he could say 'no' and not run for a second term.
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