Listed Democratic candidates for 2020 primary season, that I give a marginal chance to:
- Senator Booker
- Senator Gillibrand (likely to drop out by 5th primary)
- Senator Harris (likely to drop out by mid-Feb)
- Senator Sanders
- Senator Warren
- Mayor Castro (San Antonio)
- Andrew Yang
- Joe Biden
- Micheal Bloomberg
- Beto O'Rourke
- Presently, there are roughly 10 additional folks 'running' but I don't think they will be able to meet the debate 'requirement'.
What is the debate deal? Here's the thing....there are six public debates scheduled between June and 1 January. There's a funny rule that you have to have 200 unique (they don't explain what that means) donors in a minimum of 20 states.
Out of this group....I don't think Gillibrand or Booker can get the donor deal up and they may miss the debates, and thus fall way behind. Same is true for Harris.
So this is mostly a race between Sanders, Warren, Castro, Yang, Biden, O'Rourke, and Bloomberg? My best guess is yes. The six debates, and the way of cancelling out potential folks....will limit who shows up in Iowa.
The Iowa event? The three that I think have excellent chances are Biden, Yang, and Sanders.
All of this is rigged in some ways for three to four people to battle this out, and no one to have more than 35-percent of the primary vote....so the convention this time? It'll turn into a dynamic event, with Castro or Yang as the VP, and Sanders, Biden or O'Rourke being the top three.
Bloomberg has the capital to run a four-star race, but here's the thing....his chatter for the past decade is kinda like a left-of-center 'Trump-like' character. In the south and midwest, it just won't sell well to Democratic voters.
If this were a Booker (President) and Castro (VP) race? It would draw out a lot of Obama-voters. But I can't see Booker making it through the debates or the first couple of primary states.
My ticket for a better-than-Hillary chance? Biden (President) and Yang (VP). They would draw the dynamics to take 22 states.
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