Trump and the Likely Flip of Black Voters

I sat down over the past couple of days and analyzed the general black population of states, and the potential that 35-to-40 percent of those individuals might be voting for Trump in 2020.

So there's one significant factor here....you can't reliabily predict of that black population....how many are actually registered, and of that.....how many will routinely come out and vote.  You might assume roughly two-thirds will show up in a Presidential election and vote.  So out of that figure, you might assume that of the two-thirds....around 40-percent of them are potential Trump voters.

The states where this whole situation might be serious?

There are 13 'states' (discounting DC and Virgin Islands) that the population is 15-percent or more....black:

NY state
Arkansas
Florida
Tennessee
Virginia
Delaware
North Carolina
Alabama
South Carolina
Maryland
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi

A couple of additional states where Hillary marginally won, and it might matter:

Nevada
New Hampshire
Minnesota
Colorado

The five key states that I'd say that blacks-for-Trump situation might really matter?  Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Colorado. 

There's a limited number situation from 2016, which might lead one to think over the 2020 election and say with the lack of voters for the Green Party/Libertarian Party, and flip of black voters to Trump.....Trump would likely access those five states for additional Electoral College votes.  That would make it nearer to 35 states on the board, five more than 2016.