In 2016, we had Evan McMullin to contend with in the election. So where did he really matter?
In Utah, he took around 244k votes (roughly 23-percent of the vote). Trump still won.
In Minnesota, he took 53k votes....helping Hillary edge out Trump.
In Colorado, he took around 1-percent of the votes, but it wasn't a big deal....Hillary had more than enough to win.
So in this 2020 election, the only state where things are probably changed? Minnesota. Without him in the middle of this....it's high odds that Trump will take Minnesota.
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