Lets say on the morning of 4 November, we wake up and find that several unusual things happened on election day. In this mix, at least three states are having trouble reaching a conclusion, mostly because of mail-in ballots. The end can't be concluded, and Trump appears to have won only 27 of the 30 states that he won in 2016. If the three states go to Biden? Joe Biden then wins.
Lawsuits start up. It's not just at the state level....it's thrown at individual counties. Neither candidate can reach 270.
In mid-December....the Electoral College process would kick in (normally). In this scenario, at least three states would have judges dellaying things, and unable to hold the vote.
End-result? No winner. So you go to early January when the House and Senate come in, with new members.
The House would be given the power to vote on the Presidency. The problem here? You vote state by state. If you have nine house members from your state, and four are Democrat....then the five Republicans would edge out the vote and the state votes via the House mechanism for Trump.
So it matters on this House election. Presently? This is an odd part of the story. While Pelosi and Democrats hold a majority.....25 states are GOP-majority situations. Penn is a 0-majority state, meaning it has no vote coming, then three Democratic states hold only a one-vote lead at this point.
How the House election might go? Imagine that two seats in Penn flip to the GOP, then imagine Colorado, Michigan, Arizona and even Minnesota flip enough seats, Trump would easily win via this mechanism.
But lets go to another scenario where nothing much changes, and Trump can't win 26 states via this mechanism. As the end of the presidential period ends....the mechanism would then confirm the head of the House (likely to be a Republican) as President, and the Senate would then confirm the VP. This would be done until a change in state by state voting occurs.
A deeper crisis? No doubt.
You could very likely have a House Speaker turned President (Republican) with a VP who is a Democrat.
Massive anger by both the Republican and Democratic voters? No doubt.
But this ought to make you understand that the House election in November is just as important as the Presidential election.
No comments:
Post a Comment