Thursday, 10 December 2020

Example of a Good Stock

 Back on 8 Jan 1999, you could have bought 1-share of CNI (Canadian National Railway) for $4.55.  

On 15 Jan, 2010 (11 years later), the stock could have been sold for $26.83 per share.  

This week, that same single share would have been worth $110.65.  

You can do the math for 1999....buying up 500 shares, for less than $2,500.  Today, you'd have $55,325 (a 21-year investment situation that started with roughly $2,500 and nothing else put against it the whole time).  

I should add.....none of that gain has anything to do with the 1.5-odd percent dividend that you would have gotten yearly from the stock (that's the cherry on the cake).  

Still a good stock for today?  Well, it's more expensive.  But if you did the math....just 100 shares at 110.65, you'd spent around $11k.  

The odds in 2030?  $260 to $280 per share (unless it splits), so your value around the 10-year point ought to be near $28,000 (I'm picking the more optimistic view).  On top of that, you'd still collect the 1.5-percent dividend yearly (change in your pocket).  Even if it splits....you'd be holding 200 shares (not 100) and the value would be fairly near the same level.

The other plus-side?  Railway traffic for commercial goods in Canada isn't rocket-science, and there's presently no real competition or weird technology development to shake the market.  This is in a league by itself.  

Day-trader material?  No....it's the kind of stock (pricing currently) that you'd buy for a long-term hold.  

Downward trends?  You can pull up the chart, and readily predict about once a year, there's a correction period where it drops 10 to 15 percent (that usually scares the crap out of people).  In virtually every single drop, there's a 90-day recovery period, going back to the original level.....and then it adds on another 5-to-10 percent over the next 90 days.  The point is not to be that worried over a regular downward correction period.  

(Yeah, I do own 180-odd shares of it and consider it a long-holder.)

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