The 'Skipped--Step' Theory

 Several months ago, I wrote of the evolving view that civil conflict/civil war was no longer impossible.  After much thought, I will lay out what I call the 'skipped-step' theory and how it relates to the mess today.

As a kid, I was amused by the introduction one day of this mythical 'clock', which related in some way to suggest that nuclear war was minutes away.  The news guy would explain this update, and how the nuclear clock had moved forward and was now only 30 seconds away from midnight.  Every year.....some group would step up and give the new adjustment.

Somewhere in the mid-80s, I can remember this topic coming up and finally some journalist had laid out that this was mostly a fictional clock, and it depended on the guys in the room and they perceived things.  In simple terms....it was a fake clock.  I just hadn't grasp that until that particular moment.

Looking at the way things work today....there is a new clock and it relates to civil conflict.  Twenty years ago, I would have set the clock at 00:01....meaning we were 23 hours and 59 minutes away from civil conflict.  

Viewing today's events and particular things from the past five years....I'd probably set the clock now at 22:45....meaning we are just 1 hour and 15 minutes away from civil conflict. 

But we now have something that I'd call a 'skipped-step' and the clock can never advance any further. 

Yes, we are in differing view.  Yes, we have civil behavior that is unacceptable.  Yes, political situations are now toxic.  Yes, most all squares are filled to indicate two groups can't live together.  But the 'skipped-step' comes into play.

Sedition, succession, second amendment chatter, etc.....are now all part of the 'skipped-step'.

In the coming weeks....the term 'domestic terrorism' will be uttered a lot by Republicans and Democrats....executive orders will be issued by President Biden, and the civil conflict will be avoided.

You will wake up to find that buying a new pistol is nearly impossible because someone put your name on a potential list for domestic terrorism.  

You'd like to have your name removed.  You find that lawyers are now very difficult to hire on this process because the threat of them being disbarred is now a weekly issue that pops up.

You go on a trip and stop at a airport bar to chat with some stranger for the four hour wait.  Some federal cop stops you later in the airport....to do a one-hour screening of a potential threat discussion.  He lets you go.  But you find now that the airline that you had the reservation with....because of info he put in the system.....won't allow the reservation to occur.  In simple terms, you don't fly with them.  Maybe it's enough on the blacklist that you can't fly with any airline, and end up riding a bus back home.

You go on a trip via car and stay at a hotel in a hotel in Dayton.  You sip a beer at a bar and discuss your frustration with someone who is equally frustrated politically....talking about succession.  An hour after the talk (near midnight), a federal cop arrives at your hotel door, and is acting on some 'tip'.  A 30-minute interview occurs.  He's OK with your explanation, and leaves.  Twenty minutes later....the hotel manager arrives and says you have to go.  Yes, at 1:30 AM....you've just been tossed out and black-listed. 

You now find that your views on Facebook and Twitter are being used for a federal database.  Maybe you aren't a true domestic terrorist, but it's bad enough to suggest that you might be a third-level (marginal threat) character.  This affects your gun-ownership, your acceptance into some federal/state job, or your application for a passport.

At some point....national parks will have a banned-list.  

All of this....done in a matter of a year or two, and no real political solution because no one will talk about this.

Your reaction?  You question everyone around you because they might turn you in.  You avoid social media entirely.  You lost respect for professional sports because they've been converted into this whole mess.  You lost your respect for law enforcement.  You don't respect your local prosecutor or the judges in your state.

Your soon-to-be ex-husband or soon-to-be ex-wife uses such fake info....to convey a threat that they might call the federal task force.  So you have to cooperate with them in a way that you would not have done a year prior.

The list goes on and on....we missed the step that would have taken us to civil war or civil conflict....only by suggesting you might be a domestic terrorist and this label gets you on hundreds of banned lists.  

Going off to a third-party to dump the Republicans?  Fine....but without one-hundred percent of Republicans dumping the party.....this new creation party will never threaten the system.  Most all Senators and House members will figure out this game.  No one can do much of anything....because of the threat of labeling themselves as domestic terrorists.  

The civil conflict clock I described?  Yep, it's stuck at 22:45 and will not advance another step.  

A  year from now, you will meet me in a bar, and quietly note that you have six neighbors or friends who are on banned lists of some type.  You might even admit your son/daughter got on a university potential list of being banned if they conduct themselves in any suggestive way.  Your wife had some chat in a beauty saloon that earned a 10 PM visit by a federal agent one night....so she can't legally own a gun because of comments she said (while you still have the right).

You'll ask me how we got this way, and it basically leads through a world that is a fraudulent construction, and a Constitution that seems to have been beaten badly.  Maybe you feel like it's Nazi Germany in 1933....but you won't suggest that in our little talk at the bar.  It's a careful discussion, because other folks at the bar might turn us in.  So we converse in light-hearted chatter about Chicago Bears, snow coming early this year, and frustration over illusions that seem to now to exist.

Society?  It's now locked into this Twilight-Zone-like situation.  We can't agree on mass immigration, taxes, resolving police issues, or dumping incompetent politicians.  But we can't talk about this without getting deeper into a mess.

Yeah, it's a moment that you need five shots of some strong whiskey because we are pretty screwed now.  In some way, maybe it's just fantastic that we avoided civil conflict or civil war.  That's where you pour the second round of five shots.  It'll dull your pain.