Numbers Story

 Back around mid-December, I was reading a piece from a guy who had to fly (no choice) to a funeral on the other side of the country.  

He'd been a regular flyer up until spring of 2020, and this Covid-19 business had chilled him/wife/family enough....that it was a no-go situation.

So this guy reviewed his local airport (maybe 20-percent of the normal traffic walking around as before), the connecting airport (same story), and the end-destination airport (same story).  

Food stands were marginally operating.  Bars were about the only place in full function.  Fantastic speed through the TSA security points because they were fully manned. 

I noticed in this morning's news....a report was issued, and they said 2020's numbers were about the same as 1984.

For the whole year of 2020....368-million passengers across the US.  A year prior (2019)?  922.6-million.  Here's the one thing to consider....we really didn't start the lock-down until you get to the end of March.  So for the first quarter of 2020....those numbers were normal.  They didn't divide the report up, but I would guess that almost half of the 368-million occurred in the first quarter of 2020.

What are the consequences here?

Airports and airport businesses were built to turn profits.  They aren't doing it.

The operations landscape requires x-number of people buying tickets and paying taxes.  Well....presently, x-number is probably 30-to-40 percent of the norm.  So the tax income isn't occurring.

The people in the background?  The ones that ran the airport Asia food stands in Detroit, or ran the airport sports bar in Chicago, or the airport gift shop in Tulsa?  If they are open....they probably run with 50-percent manpower, or close by 6 PM (instead of 10 PM in 2019's landscape). 

People openly receptive to travel?  I would suggest that most would prefer to stay within a 500-mile circle of their house, and just drive their car rather than travel two hours by air to reach NY City or Vegas.  To what extent?  It wouldn't surprise me if two-thirds of regular travelers have become this way.

Recovering in 2021?  How so?  Where is there evidence that people see some exit door to the epidemic?  This vaccination business?  It's hard to find anyone who wants to 'promise' absolute protection against Covid-19, if you get the vaccination.  

I'm going to predict this....that the airport numbers for 2021 probably won't go above 450-million by the end of the year, and it settles there for 2022 as well.  It settles there....a less-than-bold new era....new marginal realities....and some false sense of returning to normal.